◐[2020/ 11/ 17/ 화요일] 환율은 중요한 이정표

◐[2020/ 11/ 17/  화요일] 환율은 중요한 이정표  

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)                
◈ 美 ; 화이자에 이어 모더나 발표 소식에 "상승"                              
▷ Dow  +1.25%,   S&P500  +0.81%,  Nasdaq +0.52%            
◈ EU ; 연이은 백신 소식에 "상승"               
▷ Stoxx 50  +0.99%           
                                                                                                    
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                               
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.184(전일 1.183)... 전년말 1.121                           
▷ 달러/엔→ 104.589(전일 104.646)... 전년말 108.615                               
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.179% pt(전일 0.181% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt              
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.906% pt(전일 0.898% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt              
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,885.05 (전일 $1,888.35)...전년말 $1,519.95             
▷ WTI→ $41.36 (전일 $40.12)....전년말 $61.20             

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스              
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 68pt (낙관), VIX 23.10(+0.00%)             
▷ Dollar Index 92.627pt(-0.14%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%                
                                                                             
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                                  
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                              
                                                                  
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                  
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,543.03pt  +49.16pt(1.97%)/ Kosdaq 847.33pt  +8.19pt (0.98%)           
            
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                           
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  74.59pt  +1.05pt (1.44%)                                                  
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단          
                        
◈ 국내외 Check Point            
▷ 파월 Fed의장 "예상보다 강한 경제, 조기 금리인상 가능성 시사 그러나 인플레이션 하방도 주의"   
    - 10년물 국채금리 2년래 최고치...경기회복 신호 
▷ 글로벌 IB, 2021년 경제전망 상향  
    - UBS "美 내년 2분기 코로나 소멸 가능…경제성장 전망 상향"   
    - 골드만삭스, 2021년 올해 보다 경기 더 호황...그 전 일시적 경제 둔화    
    - 경기회복 신뢰해야...내년말 美국채금리 10년물 수익률 1.45% 
▷ 유동성 랠리 vs 코로나19 팬데믹 따른 경제봉쇄 불확실성      
    - 모더나 백신, 임상3상 94.5%효과...위중 환자 비율도 낮아
    - 화이자 백신 90% 보다 더 좋은 결과며 냉장 온도에서 30일 보관 가능 
▷ 美증시 성장주→ 가치주로 순환매, 제조업 신흥국 통화 강세 여전
    - 기술주 차익실현 분위기 역력   
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원        
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과        
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율에 위안화 가파른 강세 등은 원화강세 요인        
▷ PBR 1.1 = 2,700pt, 직전고점 2,607pt        
     - 삼성전자 등 반도체 상승폭 강화 
     - 환율추이 감안시 예상가능수치 

◈ 결론   
화이자에서 모더나까지 백신 소식이 전해지고 있으나 당장은 코로나 확산에 따른 美경제의 일시적 둔화, 경기부양책 및 통화정책 추가 집행 기대는 달러약세를 유발하고 있죠. 위험자산 선호 분위기는 韓,중,대만 등 제조업 신흥국 통화 강세로 확산되고 있는 것입니다. 글로벌 자금이동의 본격화는 11월 들어 가파르게 나타나고 있는데 이는 환율과 밀접한 관련이 있으며 자금의 성격은 패시브 보다는 액티브 즉 스마트머니의 움직임으로 보면 될 것 같습니다. 여기에 국내증시는 공매도 금지까지 맞물려 상승폭이 가파르게 나타나고 있는 것이죠. 

앞서 환율을 중요한 이정표로 언급드렸는데 이는 추가 설명이 필요 없을 듯 싶습니다. 다만, 원/달러 환율은 지지대인 1,098~ 1,100원대 근접한 상황으로 이탈시 1,054원이 가능하며 지수는 PBR1배의 10% 추가시 2,700pt를 전망해 볼 수 있을 듯 싶습니다.  

다만, 현재 시장은 글로벌 유동성+ 과도한 기대감으로 인한 가파름으로 인해 이격을 감안하면 직전고점 2,607pt에서는 1차 저항을 예상해 볼 수 있습니다. 이 부분이 돌파 되어야 2,700pt를 기대해 볼 수 있겠죠. 韓증시의 2,700pt 부근에서는 Fed의 FOMC와 맞물릴 가능성이 높으며 1차 변곡점이 될 것으로 보입니다. 

얼마전 파월의장이 "예상보다 강한 경제라며 조기 금리인상 가능성 언급" 한 만큼 연말 소비가 맞물릴 경우 내년 중으로 통화 긴축 가능성에 대해 신호를 줄 가능성이 있기 때문입니다. 물론 여기에는 인플레이션 상승이 나온다는 전제하에 말입니다. 

차후의 일이니 현재로서는 2,607pt의 매물과 이격을 어떻게 소화할지 주목해 봐야겠습니다