◐[2020/ 11/ 12/ 목요일] 확대되는 美정치 불확실성

◐[2020/ 11/ 12/  목요일] 확대되는 美정치 불확실성

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)           
◈ 美 ; 美재고 감소 등 지표 호조 vs 백신 반론과 美정치 불확실성에 "혼조"                         
▷ Dow  -0.34%,   S&P500  +0.46%,  Nasdaq +2.03%       
◈ EU ; 백신소식+ 부양책 추진 소식 지속에 "상승"          
▷ Stoxx 50  +0.72%      
                                                                                               
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                          
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.177(전일 1.180)... 전년말 1.121                      
▷ 달러/엔→ 105.430(전일 105.316)... 전년말 108.615                          
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.185% pt(전일 0.185% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt         
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.960% pt(전일 0.963% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt         
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,861.45 (전일 $1,873.95)...전년말 $1,519.95        
▷ WTI→ $41.44 (전일 $41.38)....전년말 $61.20        

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스         
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 65pt (낙관), VIX 24.07(-2.94%)        
▷ Dollar Index 93.032pt(0.32%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%           
                                                                        
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                             
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                         
                                                             
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                             
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,485.87pt  +33.04pt(1.35%)/ Kosdaq 839.90pt  -0.89pt (0.11%)      
       
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                      
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  71.62pt  +0.70pt (0.99%)                                             
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단     
                   
◈ 국내외 Check Point       
▷ 재부각되는 美정치 불확실성...트럼프 불복에 공화당 원내대표 및 펜스 부통령 지지 선언   
    - 법무장관, 대선 선거부정 의혹 수사 승인     
    - 네바다 선거직원 "광범위 선거부정" 폭로 
▷ 美재정부양책 지연, 고밸류, 차기정권 규제 및 증세 부담....기술주 약세
    - 지수대비 저PBR주 가치부각
▷ 코로나19 팬데믹 불구, 증시반응 無....내년 정상화 기대감 때문
    - 실효성 백신은 5~ 6개월 후 출시...보릿고개 같은 시기가 될 듯
    - 추수감사절~ 새해 명절까지 확진자 급속 증가 우려...뉴욕 밤10시 이후 술집등 부분 봉쇄
    - 라가르드, 백신 지나친 낙관 경고 및 ECB 추가 부양 시사
▷ JP모건 "2016~ 2017년의 데자뷰....유럽증시 아웃퍼펌"가능
▷ 골드만삭스 "S&P500 목표수치 21% 상향"
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원   
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과   
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율에 위안화 가파른 강세 등은 원화강세 요인   
▷ 금일 韓 11월 옵션만기일 
▷ 코스피 이격 부담은 있으나 상승추세 유효 
     - 코스닥 추세가 훼손되었으며 전반적으로 에너지 소진단계      

◈ 결론     
현재 시장을 정리하면 "기대감에 의한 상승의 전형적인 장" 정도가 되겠군요. 그리고 전일 기술주가 반등했습니다만 실질적 추세는 하락이죠. 이는 "밸류부담+ 美재정정책 지연에 따른 자금 이탈+ 차기정부의 규제 및 증세 부담"때문입니다. 이 흐름은 시장 밸류대비 저평가된 종목으로 순환하기 시작했습니다. 그래서 다우나  S&P500 대비 나스닥이 상대적으로 약한 이유겠죠. 그러나 여전히 기술주에 대한 미련과 코로나 팬데믹 확산은 상승 재개에 대한 기대감을 유지시켜 중간 중간 반등을 형성하고 있는 것이죠.

국내시장으로 가보죠. 원화 강세가 투기성까지 가세해서 무서운 속도로 진행되고 있죠, 외국인들이 선물과 연계해 투기하기는 좋은 흐름이지만 수출기업들에게는 상당한 부담입니다. 갑작스러운 환율의 가파른 절상이 도움이 될 수 없으니 말입니다. 위안화 연동 및 동유럽 경제 봉쇄 그리고 달러약세만의 영향이라고만 하기에는 과도한 가파름으로 그 반작용도 크게 나올 수 있음은 염두해 둬야 한다는 것이죠. 물론 지금은 아니지만...

이와 함께 美정치 불확실성도 서서히 확대되고 있죠. 트럼프의 불복에 공화당이 지지하더니 이제는 네바다 선거직원이 선거부정을 폭로하기에 이르렀습니다. 사실인지 돈을 받은건지는 모르나 이런 일련의 흐름들이 부담으로 확대되고 있음은 부정할 수 없을 것 같습니다.

시장은 상승을 주장하고 있지만 하나 둘씩 부담도 늘어가고 있는 상황. 이미 말씀드렸지만 상승은 즐기되 기대감만으로 상승은 한계가 있는 만큼 수시로 이슈를 체크하고 대응해야 하겠습니다.