◐[2020/ 11/ 13/ 금요일] 계절이 바뀌 듯 한파가 느껴지는...

◐[2020/ 11/ 13/  금요일] 계절이 바뀌 듯 한파가 느껴지는...


♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)             
◈ 美 ; 美재고 감소 등 지표 호조 vs 백신 반론과 美정치 불확실성에 "하락"                           
▷ Dow  -1.46%,   S&P500  -1.34%,  Nasdaq -0.82%         
◈ EU ; 백신출시 보다 가까운 코로나 팬데믹 공포에 "하락"            
▷ Stoxx 50  -1.13%        
                                                                                                 
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                            
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.180(전일 1.177)... 전년말 1.121                        
▷ 달러/엔→ 105.088(전일 105.430)... 전년말 108.615                            
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.177% pt(전일 0.185% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt           
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.885% pt(전일 0.960% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt           
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,873.95 (전일 $1,861.45)...전년말 $1,519.95          
▷ WTI→ $40.97 (전일 $41.44)....전년말 $61.20          

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스           
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 56pt (낙관), VIX 26.83(+14.41%)          
▷ Dollar Index 92.983pt(-0.05%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%             
                                                                          
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                               
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                           
                                                               
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                               
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,475.62pt  -10.25pt(0.41%)/ Kosdaq 840.08pt  -0.18pt (0.02%)        
         
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                        
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  71.65pt  -0.86pt (1.19%)                                               
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단       
                     
◈ 국내외 Check Point         
▷ 美 월가 "대선 종료...트럼프 뒤집기 불가...바이든 정권인수 순차적 진행 中 
▷ 美 재정부양책 지연 받아들이고, Fed 통화정책 기대감으로 전환 
▷ 유동성 랠리에 가려진 코로나19 팬데믹 불확실성 부각  
    - 실효성 백신은 5~ 6개월 후 출시...보릿고개 같은 시기가 될 듯  
    - 바이든 자문위원 "美 4~ 6주간 경제봉쇄"제안
▷ "월가 저승사자" 카우프만 전 상원의원, 바이든 인수위원장  
▷ 美 신규실업수당 청구건수 71만건...최근 5주내 최대폭 감소 
▷ 시진핑 연내 방한 추진...바이든 동맹 결집 대비 및 포스트 코로나 외교 韓 중요 
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원     
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과     
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율에 위안화 가파른 강세 등은 원화강세 요인     
▷ 달러약세+인플레이션 불안에 가상화폐 비트코인 급등

◈ 결론
① 백신 개발 임박, ② 유동성 랠리, ③ 경기부양책과 통화부양책 기대, ④ 예상밖 경기호조 및 향후 기대감 등에 증시는 상승세를 이어가고 있지만 "법 보다 가까운 주먹"의 상황을 인지하기 시작하는 것 같습니다. 코로나 팬데믹 확산세 그리고 바이든 정부 출범시 경제 봉쇄 가능성을 우려하기 시작했습니다. 특히나 바이든 자문위원의 경제 봉쇄 제안이 전일 뉴욕시장의 약세원인이기도 했죠.

그러나 사실 이 보다는 기대감에 많이 올랐기 때문에 쉬려고 하는 핑계꺼리 라고 해두는 것이 맞을 수도 있겠죠. 여하튼 증시는 조금씩 현실을 바라보기 시작하는 것 같습니다. 美 주택시장에서도 변화가 생기는 조짐이고....

아직은 위험자산 선호가 짙기는 하지만 이런 일련의 변화가 어느시기 어떤 형식으로 나타날지는 좀 더 두고 봐야겠습니다.