◐[2020/ 11/ 18/ 수요일] 탐욕과 환율 사이

◐[2020/ 11/ 18/  수요일] 탐욕과 환율사이 

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)                  
◈ 美 ; 경제봉쇄 불안+ 소비지표 부진에 "하락"                                
▷ Dow  -0.60%,   S&P500  -0.48%,  Nasdaq -0.15%              
◈ EU ; 단기급등+ 코로나 확산 현실에 숨고르기 진행으로 "강보합"                 
▷ Stoxx 50  +0.07%             
                                                                                                      
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                 
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.186(전일 1.184)... 전년말 1.121                             
▷ 달러/엔→ 104.198(전일 104.589)... 전년말 108.615                                 
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.173% pt(전일 0.179% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.870% pt(전일 0.906% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,883.05 (전일 $1,885.05)...전년말 $1,519.95               
▷ WTI→ $41.40 (전일 $41.36)....전년말 $61.20               

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 69pt (낙관), VIX 22.90(+2.00%)               
▷ Dollar Index 92.422pt(-0.22%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%                  
                                                                               
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                                    
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                                
                                                                    
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                    
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,539.15pt  -3.88pt(0.15%)/ Kosdaq 839.47pt  -7.86pt (0.93%)             
              
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                             
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  74.91pt  -0.02pt (0.03%)                                                    
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단            
                          
◈ 국내외 Check Point              
▷ 파월 Fed의장 "코로나로 몇개월간 경제 어려울 것...회복 완성까지 모든 도구 사용"
    - 애틀란트 연은총재, 연준 채권매입 고민     
▷ 바이든, 美서 제품생산 안하면 정부사업 수주 불가  
    - 바이든판 Buy 아메리칸...바이드노믹스→ 트럼프와 다르지 않을 듯 
▷ 백신 희망에 내년 코로나19 종식 전망 확산...상용화 전까지는 고통의 시기  
     - 화이자, 이번주 안전성 발표 예정, 아스트라제네카 중간발표 예정
▷ 中國發 크레딧 경고등...칭화유니, 화천자동차 채무불이행 직면 
    - 중국 가전 1위 유통회사 수닝 디폴트 가능성 부각 
    - 중국경제 작년 수준까지 회복된 상태에서 효과 상쇄
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원          
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과          
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율+ RCEP체결에 위안화 가파른 강세에 동조         
▷ PBR 1.1 = 2,700pt, 직전고점 2,607pt          
     - 삼성전자 등 반도체 상승폭 강화   
     - 환율추이 감안시 예상가능수치   
▷ 월가, 가치주와 중소형주로 매기 급속 이전...키 맞추기 순환매

◈ 결론     
전일 코스피 조정폭은 최근 상승폭 대비 미미한 수준으로 추세적 상승이 지속되고 있는 모습이죠. 이정표로 보고 있는 원달러 환율 절상추세가 여전하고, 코로나 백신 소식은 세계 경기회복에 자신감을 더 해 줍니다. 또한 바이든 정부의 출범 기대(진보의 부양책+ 달러약세)는 탐욕의 에너지이기도 합니다. 그러다 보니 모든 것이 장밋빛으로만 보이는 상황이죠. 이 분위기라면 코스피도 1차적으로는 직전고점인 2,607pt가 가능하지 않을까 싶습니다. 물론 돌파시 PBR1.1배인 2,700pt도 욕심을 부려 볼 수는 있을 것입니다. 

다만, 현재 시장이 버블상태에서 이격이 많이 벌어졌고, 환율 절상 속도가 더뎌지는 징후가 나타나고 있어 사주경계를 철저히 할 필요가 있습니다. 이뿐이겠습니까? 바이든 정부의 보호무역주의 발언이 들리고 중국에서는 크레딧 경고 소식도 들어오고 있습니다.  

얼마전 말씀드린대로 위험은 방심속에서 찾아오는 법입니다. 지금 탐욕은 불태우되 만일도 대비해야 한다는 의미입니다.