◐[2020/ 11/ 19/ 목요일] 월가는 확진자 급증이 백신보다 가까운...

◐[2020/ 11/ 19/  목요일] 월가는 확진자 급증이 백신보다 가까운...

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)                    
◈ 美 ; 코로나 확진 불안 vs 백신 기대감의 교차 속 "하락"                                  
▷ Dow  -0.53%,   S&P500  -0.49%,  Nasdaq -0.09%                
◈ EU ; 코로나 백신 낭보에 "상승"                   
▷ Stoxx 50  +0.39%               
                                                                                                        
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                   
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.186(전일 1.186)... 전년말 1.121                               
▷ 달러/엔→ 103.847(전일 104.198)... 전년말 108.615                                   
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.175% pt(전일 0.173% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                  
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.880% pt(전일 0.870% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                  
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,873.61 (전일 $1,883.05)...전년말 $1,519.95                 
▷ WTI→ $41.91 (전일 $41.40)....전년말 $61.20                 

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                  
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 67pt (낙관), VIX 23.49(+3.43%)                 
▷ Dollar Index 92.350pt(-0.05%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%                    
                                                                                 
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                                      
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                                  
                                                                      
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                      
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,545.64pt  +6.49pt(0.26%)/ Kosdaq 851.74pt  +12.27pt (1.46%)               
                
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                               
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  74.94pt  +0.06pt (0.08%)                                                      
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단              
                            
◈ 국내외 Check Point                
▷ 월가, 성장주→ 가치주 및 중소형주로 매기 이전 및 분위기 선동  
▷ 유동성 추가공급 기대에 증시 상승 기대감 여전 
▷ 잇단 백신 낭보에 내년 코로나19 종식 전망 확산...상용화 전까지는 고통의 시기   
    - 美FDA, 12/8~ 10일(잠정) 자문그룹 회의 소집....코로나 백신 승인 주목 
      ※ 자문그룹에 화이자, 모더나 백신 검토 요청할 듯
▷ 中國發 크레딧 경고등   
    - 중국내 가전 1위 유통회사 수닝 디폴트 가능성 부각   
    - 칭화유니, 화천자동차 채무불이행 직면 
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원            
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과            
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율+ RCEP체결에 위안화 가파른 강세에 동조           
▷ PBR 1.1 = 2,700pt, 직전고점 2,607pt            
     - 삼성전자 등 반도체 상승폭 강화     
     - 환율추이 감안시 예상 가능수치     
▷ 월가, 가치주와 중소형주로 매기 급속 이전...키 맞추기 순환매  

◈ 결론       
최근 뉴욕 3대지수 추이를 보면 기술주 등 성장주가 시장을 주도했고, 美대선종료와 재정정책이 지연되면서 가치주 및 중소형주 순환매가 이어지고 있습니다. 지수로 보면 나스닥에서 다우지수 그리고 S&P500으로의 흐름 이라고 볼 수 있겠습니다. 이와 함께 러셀2000 지수 흐름도 주목 받기 시작했습니다. 

국내 증시도 올해 美의 이런 흐름과 궤를 같이 해 왔죠. 그래서 플랫폼주와 제약, 바이오주들을 비롯해 코스닥이 급등했고 이후 가치주가 부각되며 코스피의 상승으로 이어졌습니다. 여기에 중소형주도 내년 연초효과를 기대하고 매수세가 유입되는 분위기죠.  

국내시장에는 추가로 공매도금지 기간과 적절한 코로나 통제로 인한 경제적 반사효과도 기대되고 있습니다. 물론 호재만 있지는 않습니다 대주주양도세과세 문제가 있고 버블 부담이 있으며 매물대에 위치해 있다는 것이죠. 

이런 난해한 시기 이정표 역할은 환율이라고 말씀드렸는데 원화 강세가 추세적으로 진행되고 있으나 한편으로는 상징적 지지대와 매물지지대 부근에서 공방을 벌이고 있죠. 그러다 보니 지수의 방향성은 약해졌고 눈치 장세가 이어지고 있는 것이죠.  

이해 되십니까? 그렇습니다 환율에 따라 시장의 추세 방향을 대략적으로 가늠할 수 있고, 원화가 지지대를 이탈시 코스피는 직전고점 2,607pt가 1차 저항대를 넘어서는 가치주와 중소형 개별종목 장세가 만개할 가능성이 있다고 볼 수 있겠습니다. 그러나 지지대를 이탈하지 못하고 절하를 지속한다면 시장 방향은 또 달라질 것입니다.