◐[2020/ 11/ 16/ 월요일] 양방향을 항상 생각하는 것이 투자

◐[2020/ 11/ 16/  월요일] 양방향을 항상 생각하는 것이 투자 

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)              
◈ 美 ; 경제봉쇄 우려 vs 기업실적 호조+ 백신 발표 러쉬에 "상승"                            
▷ Dow  +1.37%,   S&P500  +1.36%,  Nasdaq +1.02%          
◈ EU ; 경제봉쇄 우려 vs 백신 기대감 "혼조"             
▷ Stoxx 50  +0.11%         
                                                                                                  
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                             
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.183(전일 1.180)... 전년말 1.121                         
▷ 달러/엔→ 104.646(전일 105.088)... 전년말 108.615                             
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.181% pt(전일 0.177% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt            
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.898% pt(전일 0.885% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt            
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,888.35 (전일 $1,873.95)...전년말 $1,519.95           
▷ WTI→ $40.12 (전일 $40.97)....전년말 $61.20           

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스            
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 63pt (낙관), VIX 23.10(-8.88%)           
▷ Dollar Index 92.710pt(-0.26%), 12월 금리동결 확률 95.9%              
                                                                           
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                                
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                            
                                                                
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,493.87pt  +18.25pt(0.74%)/ Kosdaq 839.14pt  +0.94pt (0.11%)         
          
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                         
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  73.52pt  +1.71pt (2.38%)                                                
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단        
                      
◈ 국내외 Check Point          
▷ 파월 Fed의장 "예상보다 강한 경제, 조기 금리인상 가능성 시사 그러나 인플레이션 하방도 주의" 
▷ 세인트루이스 연은 총재 "경제 예상보다 빠르게 회복"...연준 정책 효율적, 확진자 급증 불구 경제적응
▷ 필라델피아 연은총재 "경제 팬데믹 이전으로 회복, 시간소요"
▷ 유동성 랠리 vs 코로나19 팬데믹 따른 경제봉쇄 불확실성    
    - 실효성 백신 5~ 6개월 후 출시....공백기는 보릿고개 같은 시기   
    - 바이든 자문위원 "美 4~ 6주간 경제봉쇄"제안
    - 뉴욕 "등교 중단 검토" 
▷ 글로벌 IB, 2021년 경제전망 상향
    - UBS "美 내년 2분기 코로나 소멸 가능…경제성장 전망 상향" 
    - 2021년 올해 보다 경기 더 호황...그 전 일시적 경제 둔화  
▷ 위험자산 선호, 신흥국 통화로 확대
    - GMO 공동창업자이자 애널리스인 제레미 그랜섬 "올 해 美증시 미친랠리...버블 확실"
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원      
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과      
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율에 위안화 가파른 강세 등은 원화강세 요인      

◈ 결론 
최근 월가의 분위기, 美 10년물 장기국채 추이 등을 보면 "바이든 정부의 대규모 부양책 당연"으로 받아 들이고 있는 모습이죠. 또한 백신 소식이 전해지면서 "경제에 대한 기대감도 다시 높이고 있는 상태"로 이런 분위기는 위험자산 선호 강화로 이어지면서 급기야 신흥국 통화 강세까지 형성되고 있습니다. 여기다 일부 국가의 공매도 금지도 시장에 영향을 주고 있는 것이죠.

그러나 이 모든 것이 기대감으로 선반영되고 있다는 점은 잊어서는 안될 것입니다. 투자는 항상 다른 방향도 염두해 둬야 하기 때문입니다.

바이든 정부의 대규모 부양책은 공화당의 협조가 필요하고, 신뢰감 있는 임상을 마친 백신은 내년 4~5월이나 가능하며 현재 확진자 급증 추세가 이어진다면 공백기내 경제봉쇄 가능성도 있고, 신뢰성 백신이 나올 무렵 통화긴축도 가능할 수 있기 때문입니다