◐[2020/ 11/ 10/ 화요일] 유비무환이 떠오르는 시기

◐[2020/ 11/ 10/  화요일] 유비무환이 떠오르는 시기  

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)         
◈ 美 ; 화이자+ 바이오니아 백신 90% 예방율 소식에도 불구 기술주 규제 우려에 "혼조"                       
▷ Dow  +4.24%,   S&P500  +2.36%,  Nasdaq - 0.34%     
◈ EU ; 화이자+ 바이오니아 백신 90% 예방율 소식에 "급등"        
▷ Stoxx 50  +6.36%    
                                                                                             
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                        
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.182(전일 1.187)... 전년말 1.121                    
▷ 달러/엔→ 105.382(전일 103.303)... 전년말 108.615                        
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.183% pt(전일 0.155% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt       
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.944% pt(전일 0.820% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt       
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,866.50 (전일 $1,952.05)...전년말 $1,519.95      
▷ WTI→ $40.17 (전일 $37.46)....전년말 $61.20      

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스       
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 56pt (낙관), VIX 24.13(-2.94%)      
▷ Dollar Index 92.735pt(0.55%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%         
                                                                      
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                           
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                       
                                                           
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                           
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,447.20pt  +30.70pt(1.27%)/ Kosdaq 851.21pt  +14.43pt (1.72%)    
     
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                    
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  71.27pt  +1.02pt (1.44%)                                           
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단   
                 
◈ 국내외 Check Point     
▷ 바이든 "트럼프 보다 많은 재정정책 예상"...달러 약세/ 중화권 및 한국 통화 강세  
    - 정치적 불확실성 잔존...2021/1/5 블루웨이브 여부도 주목   
    - 공화 vs 민주 부양책 이견 팽팽 
▷ 12월 FOMC 통화정책 주목...백신 진전에 Fed 긴축 조기 시행가능성 부각 
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원 
     - 동유럽 경제봉쇄에 따른 반사효과 
     - 中출구전략 및 성장율에 위안화 가파른 강세 등은 원화강세 요인 
▷ 화이자+바이오엔테크 합작 코로나 백신 90% 예방율...유가 급등, 금폭락
▷ 韓 11월 옵션만기일...11/12 
     - 외국인은 환율+ 파생 플레이...현물 매수가 아님  

◈ 결론   
현재 시장의 특징은 ①바이든 美대통령 당선 랠리, ② 동유럽 경제 봉쇄에 따른 반사효과, ③ 중화권 출구전략 논의 및 성장에 동조, ③ 화이자 백신 예방율 90%  ④ 달러약세, 제조업신흥국 통화 강세 연장 전망에 외국인 선물 등 파생+ 환율 전략이 맞물리면서 코스피 PBR 1배 및 2020년 신고가 갱신이죠.  

여기서 부터 생각이 많아지는 시기죠. 앞서 나열해 이슈에 영향을 더 받는다면 추가적 랠리를 PBR1.1배 추정시 2,700pt 전후가 가능합니다. 그러나 바이든 당선으로 인한 기대효과가 상당히 반영된 상태고, 기술적 분석상 이격이 벌어진 상태에서 금일 장 중 상승은 단기 고점을 형성할 가능성이 매우 높습니다. 물론 외국인 포지션이 바뀌지 않았고 만기까지는 좀 더 남았다는 점에서 단기 고점이후 추세 훼손으로 이어지지는 않겠지만 그 변곡점의 키는 외국인 포지션 변화가 아닐까 싶습니다

1차 변곡점은 11월 옵션만기, 2차 변곡점은 12월  FOMC로 추정하며 전일 화이자 백신 소식에 급등한 위험자산을 주목하면서 Fed의 긴축 신호도 12월 혹은 내년초 있을 가능성이 있어 이에 대한 대비도 고민해야 될 것으로 보입니다

현 시장, 상승은 즐기되 유비무환도 필요한 시기임을 잊어서는 안될 것입니다. "달러인덱스" 그리고 "Vix" 지수의 변동성을 눈여겨 보면서 외국인 포지션의 변화도 놓쳐서는 안되겠습니다.