●[2020/03/05/목요일] 공급국가에서 소비국가로 전이

●[2020/03/05/목요일] 공급국가에서 소비국가로 전이

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                          

◈ 美 ; Fed 전격금리인하 놓고 기대와 불안에 "급등락"                                                  
▷ (종가 전 수치)Dow +4.01%, S&P500 +3.73%, Nasdaq +3.28%                                                            

◈ EU ; 美바이든 부활+ 코로나19 각 국 공동대응에 "상승"                                                          
▷ Stoxx 50 +1.44%                                                          

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                          
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.113 (전일 1.117)... 전년말 1.121                                                       
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.434 (전일 107.261)... 전년말 108.615                                                          
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.661% p (전일 0.693% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                         
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.021% p (전일 1.005% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                        
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,638.55 (전일 $1,639.42)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                        
▷ WTI→ $47.17 (전일 $47.65)....전년말 $61.20                                                          

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                          
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 14pt (극공포), VIX 31.22 (-15.21%)                                                          
▷ Dollar Index 97.347pt(+0.23%), 3월 금리인하 확률 100.0%                                                          
                        
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                                  

♣ 한국 동향                                                           
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,059.33 pt  +45.18 pt(+2.24%)/ Kosdaq 641.73 pt  +14.91pt(+2.38%)                                                                   
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                          
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 57.71pt  +2.18pt (+3.93%)                                                          
▷ 야간선물지수 280.55pt  +2.30pt (+0.83%) 환산지수 2,076.35 pt                                                          

◈ 국내외 Check Point                             
▷ 코로나19 대유행 공포에 각 국 중앙은행 통화정책 완화....G7 공조          
    - 기대감 vs 회의론 대두 속 트럼프, 추가인하 쐐기    
    ※  Fed, 3/18에도 인하 가능성 부각....코로나19로 美 실물경제 타격 가시화 
      º ECB, BOJ 추가 양적완화 고려 
      º 중국 인민은행도 3월 기준금리 0.25%pt 인하 기대 
      º 한국은행도 다음 금통위때 금리인하 가능성 예고               
▷ 전일 바이든 8개주 승리 "대약진"...샌더스 4개주 승리 
▷ 中에 이어 韓 확진자수 감소세 vs 美과 유럽은 증가세 
    - 美 의료비가 비싸 검사가 제대로 이루어지지 못하는 상황 
    - 美의료전문가 추정 8~10만명 확진자 불가피, 사망자도 급증. 
▷ 올 해 원유수요 감소 예상...40년간 3회 중 1회

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                     
 전일 Fed의 전격 금리인하에도 불구, 시장은 3월 정기FOMC에서 추가 인하에 대한 기대감을 키우고 있습니다. 전일 경기에 대한 우려감을 키웠다면 이제부터는 유동성에 대한 기대감을 키우는 시기가 될 것으로 보입니다. 다만 시장에서는 의료비 부담으로 겉으로 드러나지 않은 美의 확진자가 급증하면 또 한차례 글로벌 충격을 주겠지만 그 폭은 앞전 저점을 훼손하지 않는 폭이 될 가능성이 높으며 기온 상승+ 우기 도래는 코로나19 소멸 기대와 글로벌 유동성 랠리에 대한 기대감을 키울 것입니다.  

 다만, 美의 실물경제 영향과 이로 인한 환율추이도 중요한 변수가 될 것입니다. 코로나19가 공급국가에서 소비국가로 전이 중이니 당분간 우려감 vs 기대감으로 변동폭를 키우는 한편 잦아지지 않을까 싶습니다. 지난 밤까지 글로벌 시장의 이슈는 바이든 부활과 각 국 코로나19 대응 공조 이로인한 3월 Fed 의 추가 금리인하 가능성 및 ECB, BOJ 유동성 공급, 中의 금리인하 가능성이었습니다. 

 금일 시장입니다.상기 이슈는 어제 국내시장에 일부 반영이 된 상태죠. 그럼에도 반도체지수와 야간선물지수 모두 흐름이 좋았습니다만 역외 환율은 단기간내 절상이 가파렀던 탓일까요 절하 흐름을 보였습니다. 이를 토대로 보면 2,075~ 2,080pt로 출발하겠지만 장 중 흐름은 달러인덱스 상승 및 단기 차익실현 매물에 상승폭이 다소 축소되는 움직임이 예상됩니다