●[2020/03/06/금요일] 이 판국에 무역전쟁 확전이라니

●[2020/03/06/금요일] 이 판국에 무역전쟁 확전이라니

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                           

◈ 美 ; 무역전쟁 확대+ 코로나19 대유행 관련 각 국 대응효과 제한전 전망에 "급락"                                                   
▷ (종가 전 수치)Dow -4.08%, S&P500 -4.01%, Nasdaq -3.59%                                                             

◈ EU ; 또 다시 코로나19 대유행에 따른 경제충격 우려로 "하락"                                                           
▷ Stoxx 50 -1.67%                                                           

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                           
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.122 (전일 1.113)... 전년말 1.121                                                        
▷ 달러/엔→ 106.222 (전일 107.434)... 전년말 108.615                                                           
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.572% p (전일 0.661% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                          
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.912% p (전일 1.021% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                         
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,674.15 (전일 $1,638.55)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                         
▷ WTI→ $45.75 (전일 $47.17)....전년말 $61.20                                                           

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                           
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 8pt (극공포), VIX 42.23 (+32.01%)                                                           
▷ Dollar Index 96.668pt(-0.66%), 3월 금리인하 확률 100.0%                                                           
                         
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                                   

♣ 한국 동향                                                            
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,085.26 pt  +25.93 pt(+1.26%)/ Kosdaq 650.19 pt  +8.46pt(+1.32%)                                                                    
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                           
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 56.20pt  -1.38pt (-2.40%)                                                           
▷ 야간선물지수 276.10pt  -5.15pt (-1.83%) 환산지수 2,047.08 pt                                                           

◈ 국내외 Check Point       
▷ 트럼프, 무역전쟁 확대...WTO 양허관세율 인상 검토→ WTO체제 흔들기
    - 유럽에 보복관세 확대, 인도와도 무역전쟁 예고                    
▷ USD Libor-OIS 스프레드 급증....3/18 추가 금리인하 가능성 고조           
    - Repo 시장 자금 재공급     
▷ 코로나19 대유행 공포 지속
    - S&P 코로나19에 유로존 경쟁률 하향 조정...ECB 금리인하 전망               
▷ WSJ "러시아, 사우디 감산 계획 반대"  
▷ 코로나19 불안에도 워렌버핏은 추가 매수 
▷ 코스피 PBR 0.81배=2,085pt, 0.75배=1,912pt, 0.85배=2,187pt, 0.90배=2,315pt

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                      
    전일 이슈는 "무역 전쟁 후유증 및 확전으로 인한 제조업 회복 지연 전망"과 " 코로나19 확산에 수요, 공급망 붕괴로 인한 세계경제 충격"등 이었습니다. 이로 인해 투심은 또 다시 패닉에 빠졌고 안전자산으로의 쏠림도 커졌습니다. 그러나 그런 중에도 달러인덱스가 97pt가 붕괴되면서 상대적으로 먼저 움직여온 환율시장에서는 "흐름의 변화" 가능성에 대해 기대감을 갖게 하기도 했습니다.

    시장은 원하는 "연준의 추가금리와 유동성 공급 지속"을 위해 변동성 확대를 이어가는 한편, "코로나19의 뒤늦은 확산 우려도 진정 전까지 지속"될 수 밖에 없어 당분간은 유동성 기대감 vs 경제충격 우려감 장세는 더 이어질 전망입니다. 한마디로 팬데믹 공포속 각 국 정책의 효과 제한적에 따른 세계 경제 회복 우려는 더 많은 돈을 풀게하는 분위기를 만들고 있는 셈이죠.

    코스피 시장은 금일 또 다시 급락으로 2,050pt 미만에서 출발할 것 같습니다. 반도체지수 및 야간선물지수, 역외환율 그리고 무역전쟁 후유증 및 확전 이슈등 도움이 되는 내용이 없는 상황입니다. 그러나 달러인덱스 하락세를 고려하면 장 중 흐름은 시초가 전후의 흐름은 유지할 것으로 추정됩니다