●[2020/03/04/수요일] Fed 전격 금리인하

●[2020/03/04/수요일] Fed 전격 금리인하

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                        

◈ 美 ; Fed 전격금리인하 놓고 기대와 불안에 "급등락"                                                
▷ Dow -1.93%, S&P500 -1.64%, Nasdaq -2.10%                                                          

◈ EU ; 주요국가들의 코로나19 대응 정책 공조 기대에 "상승"                                                        
▷ Stoxx 50 +0.99%                                                        

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                        
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.117 (전일 1.114)... 전년말 1.121                                                     
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.261 (전일 108.174)... 전년말 108.615                                                        
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.693% p (전일 0.846% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                       
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.005% p (전일 1.101% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                      
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,639.42 (전일 $1,5592.40)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                      
▷ WTI→ $47.65 (전일 $47.23)....전년말 $61.20                                                        

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                        
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 10pt (극공포), VIX 36.64 (+9.63%)                                                        
▷ Dollar Index 97.123pt(-0.20%), 6월 금리인하 확률 14.3%                                                        
                      
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                                

♣ 한국 동향                                                         
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,014.15 pt  +11.64 pt(+0.58%)/ Kosdaq 626.82 pt  -1.84pt(-0.13%)                                                                 
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                        
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 55.52pt  -0.69pt (-1.23%)                                                        
▷ 야간선물지수 270.40pt  -1.90pt (-0.70%) 환산지수 2,000.10 pt                                                        

◈ 국내외 Check Point                           
▷ 코로나19 대유행 공포에 각 국 중앙은행 통화정책 완화         
    - Fed, 중국인민은행, 영란은행, BOJ...모든 통화정책 강구 
    - OECD 올해 세계 성장률 전망 2.9%→ 2.4%로 하향   
    - IMF "코로나19, 글로벌 경제 영향…성장률 하향 검토"       
▷ Fed, 기준금리 0.50%pt 전격 인하
    - 美 10년 금리 장 중 1.0%대 붕괴....사상 첫 0%대 진입      
    - 3/18 FOMC, 경제에 대한 발언 주목                  
▷ 세계 공급망과 소비 붕괴 우려 현실화
▷ 신용/ 대출 등 담보부족 물량 출회에 따른 변동성 확대 구간

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                   
 지난 밤 이슈는 "Fed의 금리인하"죠. 이번 금리인하를 보면서 좀 의아했을 겁니다. 금리를 0.50%pt나 인하했는데 뉴욕시장이 왜 저렇게 불안하지? 재료의 소멸도 있겠지만 그 보다도 "금리를 전격적으로 내려야 할 정도로 경제 상황이 나쁜 것 아니냐" 라는 우려 때문인 것이죠. 초기 모두가 사스나 메르스때 보다는 약해 라고 했지만 이번 코로나19는 세계의 공급망과 소비를 얼어붙게 만들었죠. Fed이 정기 회의가 아닌 시기에 금리인하를 단행할 정도로 말입니다. 

 그러나 우리는 이런 군중심리에 휘말려 불안에 동조해서는 안됩니다. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 당시에도 비슷한 사례가 있었고, 세계 경기둔화에 대한 불안이 처음은 아니죠. 뉴욕이야 워낙 신고가 행진을 하며 독주했고 우리는 그렇지 않았습니다. 당장이야 전세계 분위기를 나 몰라라 하기는 어려울 터 2,000pt 이탈과 회복을 반복하겠지만 이 사태가 진정되면 과거에도 그랬듯이 각 국이 풀어 놓은 유동성이 한 몫 할 겁니다. 

금일 코스피 전망입니다. 반도체지수 급락, MSCI ETF 한국물 및 야간선물 지수 하락으로 코스피 하락 출발이 불가피해 보입니다. 그러나 역외환율 하락이 지속되면서 금일 코스피 출발은 생각보다 양호한 2,000pt 전후가 되지 안을까 싶습니다. 달러인덱스 지속적 하락등 감안시 외국인은 저가매수를 지속 할 것으로 보입니다. 우리 또한 변동성을 확대하는 하루가 되겠지만 과거의 역사적 효과를 고려해 현금 매수를 유지합니다.