●[2020/03/03/화요일] 반신반의 속 변화

●[2020/03/03/화요일] 반신반의 속 변화


♣ 글로벌 동향                                                       

◈ 美 ; 코로나19, 각 국 부양책 및 중앙은행 적극 대응에 "상승"                                               
▷ Dow +5.01%, S&P500 +4.58%, Nasdaq +4.49%                                                         

◈ EU ; 코로나19 대유행 공포 vs 각 국 부양기대에 "상승"                                                       
▷ Stoxx 50 +0.28%                                                       

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                       
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.114 (전일 1.103)... 전년말 1.121                                                       
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.174 (전일 107.884)... 전년말 108.615                                                       
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.846% p (전일 0.931% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                      
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.101% p (전일 1.163% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                     
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,592.40 (전일 $1,587.15)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                     
▷ WTI→ $47.23 (전일 $45.25)....전년말 $61.20                                                       

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                       
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 11pt (극공포), VIX 33.58 (-16.28%)                                                       
▷ Dollar Index 97.433pt(-0.66%), 3월 금리인하 확률 100.0%                                                       
                     
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                               

♣ 한국 동향                                                        
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,002.51 pt  +15.50 pt(+0.78%)/ Kosdaq 627.66 pt  +16.93pt(+2.77%)                                                                
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                       
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 55.91pt  +0.95pt (+1.73%)                                                       
▷ 야간선물지수 271.90pt  +1.00pt (+0.37%) 환산지수 2,009.90 pt                                                       

◈ 국내외 Check Point                          
▷ 코로나19 대유행 공포에 각 국 중앙은행 적극 대응 및 G7 금일 원격회의        
    - Fed, 중국인민은행, 영란은행, BOJ...모든 통화정책 강구
    - OECD 올해 세계 성장률 전망 2.9%→ 2.4%로 하향  
    - IMF "코로나19, 글로벌 경제 영향…성장률 하향 검토"      
▷ Fed, 4월 Repo 시장 개입과 6월 단기채 매입 종료, 5~ 6월 Tapering 예고→ 불가능 할 듯       
    - 3/18 FOMC...시장, 금리인하 0.5%pt 베팅 ← 일부 글로벌IB 2020년 1%pt 인하까지 전망                 
▷ 中, 확진자 규모 둔화 불구, 공장 가동 회복 지연     
▷ 달러인덱스 급락세, 위안화 7위안 붕괴, 원화 20폭락     
▷ 금일 밤 美 수퍼화요일, 민주당 경선 주목     
▷ 산유국 감산+ 각국 경기부양 결정에 유가급등

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                  
    코로나19 대유행이 시작된 상태. 이제 공급처인 中, 韓→ 수요처인 美, EU로 번지면서 공포감은 지속되고 있습니다. 그러나 이런 흐름 중에 먼저 움직였던 "달러"가 절하로 전환하면서 위험통화인 "위안화", "원화"등의 절상속도가 가파러지고 있습니다. 글로벌IB의 투기적 차익실현. 이는 Fed 위원장의 발언과 함께 각 국 중앙은행들의 적극적 대책 조짐이 보이자 나타난 현상으로 보입니다. 이렇게 된다면 美 시장은 좀 진정될 것이고 신흥국은 환차익과 함께 다시 제한된 반등이 가능하지 않을까요?

   물론 셈법이 좀 복잡합니다. 美의 상황이 예사롭지 않기 때문입니다. 연준의 의장의 발언과 코스트코의 텅빈 매장 등 우리가 알고 있는 것과 좀 다르죠. 쉽게 이야기 해서 코로나19사태가 지구 반대편에서 어떻게 전개될지에 따라 ① 각 국의 공동대응 방안, 과 ② 글로벌 유동성으로 인한 강세, 그리고 다음으로 ③자금이탈과 함께 세계경기 침체, 마지막으로 ④ 기회의 포착을 어떤시기 어떻게 대응해 갈 것이냐도 고민해야 하는 중요한 내용이죠. 지금은 "①"과 "②"를 고민해야 할 시기일 것입니다. 

   국내 시장으로 가보죠. 반도체지수 및 MSCI ETF 한국물, 야간선물 지수가 모두 상승했고, 역외환율은 절상되었습니다. 코스피는 2,010pt 전후에서 출발이 예상되며 달러인덱스도 가파른 하락으로 97pt 중반까지 하락했죠. 코로나19 확산세가 아시아는 둔화 조짐을, 미국이나 유럽은 증가 조짐을 보이면서 아시아 투심 위축은 다소 진정되는 모습입니다. 또한 각 국의 경기부양책 등 공동 대응 기대도 커지고 있습니다. 이로 인해 국내 증시는 시초가 대비 추가적 상승이 예상 됩니다.