●[2020/03/09/월요일] 두번째 저점을 잡아가는 시기

●[2020/03/09/월요일] 두번째 저점을 잡아가는 시기

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                            

◈ 美 ; 고용호조에도 불구, 코로나19 불안 지속되며 "하락"                                                    
▷ (종가 수치)Dow -0.98%, S&P500 -1.71%, Nasdaq -1.87%                                                              

◈ EU ; 깊어지는 코로나19 우려로 "하락"                                                            
▷ Stoxx 50 -3.91%                                                            

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                            
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.130 (전일 1.122)... 전년말 1.121                                                         
▷ 달러/엔→ 105.497 (전일 107.222)... 전년말 108.615                                                            
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.510% p (전일 0.572% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                           
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.773% p (전일 0.912% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                          
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,674.35 (전일 $1,674.15)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                          
▷ WTI→ $41.61 (전일 $45.75)....전년말 $61.20                                                            

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                            
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 7pt (극공포), VIX 42.23 (+5.86%)                                                            
▷ Dollar Index 96.060pt(-0.75%), 3월 금리인하 확률 100.0%                                                            
                          
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                                    

♣ 한국 동향                                                             
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,040.22 pt  -45.04 pt(-2.16%)/ Kosdaq 642.72 pt  -7.47pt(-1.15%)                                                                     
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                            
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 55.54pt  -0.78pt (-1.38%)                                                            
▷ 야간선물지수 270.40pt  -3.80pt (-1.39%) 환산지수 2,011.95 pt                                                            

◈ 국내외 Check Point        
▷ 코로나19 대유행 공포 확산 
    - 아시아 진정 속 유럽과 아메리카 확산 
▷ 트럼프, 무역전쟁 확대...WTO 양허관세율 인상 검토→ WTO체제 흔들기 
    - 유럽에 보복관세 확대, 인도와도 무역전쟁 예고                     
▷ 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 수천주 풀리는 글로벌 양적완화시대 도래
    - Fed, 3/18 추가 금리인하 가능성 100%, Repo 시장 자금 공급재개.            
    - 라가르드 ECB총재, 양적완화 강력 시사
    - 韓, 中, 日도 적극 추진 및 시사   
▷ 저유가 시대 도래...감산 무산 및 코로나19로 인한 경기침체  
▷ 코스피 PBR 0.81배=2,085pt, 0.75배=1,912pt, 0.85배=2,187pt, 0.90배=2,315pt 
▷ 투자의 대가들은 주식 분할매수 中
▷ 3/12 쿼드러플 위칭데이.

♣ 금일 투자 전략  
    MSCI ETF 한국물, 야간선물지수, 반도체지수 모두 하락했지만 역외시장에서 원화는 절상을 보였습니다. 이를 토대로 보면 2,010pt~ 2,015pt에서 출발 할 것으로 추정되며 달러인덱스의 지속적인 하락은 외국인 수급에 긍정적으로 작용할 가능성이 높으며 이로 인한 낙폭 축소도 예상됩니다. 

   이번주 3월 선물옵션만기도 이슈지만 각 국에서 통화정책에 이은 부양책 등 공조화, 트럼프의 무역전쟁 확대, 코로나19 확산 및 이로 인한 글로벌 경기침체 등은 변동성 확대요인입니다. 얼마전 1차 저점을 잡았던 글로벌 증시 이 번주 2번째 저점을 확인하는 시기가 아닐까 싶습니다. 강하다면 이후 반등이지만 분위기로 봐서는 쌍바닥 보다는 다중바닥 혹은 최소 삼중 바닥을 확인하지 않을까 싶습니다. 그러나 앞전 저점을 훼손하지 않을 가능성이 높아 보이며 큰 호흡으로 본다면 여전히 2,000pt 근접은 현금매수 구간이라는 판단입니다.