●[2020/03/02/월요일]WHO, "코로나 위험도 매우높음으로 격상"

●[2020/03/02/월요일]투자시장 "아비규환"이었으나


♣ 글로벌 동향                                                      

◈ 美 ; 코로나19 대유행 패닉, 파월 전격 시장 개입에도 "혼조"                                              
▷ Dow -1.39%, S&P500 -0.82%, Nasdaq +0.01%                                                        

◈ EU ; 코로나19 팬더믹 공포에 "패닉"                                                      
▷ Stoxx 50 -3.66%                                                      

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                      
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.103 (전일 1.099)... 전년말 1.121                                                      
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.884 (전일 109.913)... 전년말 108.615                                                      
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.931% p (전일 1.093% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                     
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.163% p (전일 1.294% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                    
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,587.15 (전일 $1,642.75)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                    
▷ WTI→ $45.25 (전일 $46.89)....전년말 $61.20                                                      

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                      
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 10pt (극공포), VIX 40.11 (+2.43%)                                                      
▷ Dollar Index 98.060pt(-0.41%), 3월 금리인하 확률 94.9%                                                      
                    
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                              

♣ 한국 동향                                                       
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,987.01 pt  -67.88 pt(-3.30%)/ Kosdaq 610.73 pt  -27.44pt(-4.30%)                                                               
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                      
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 54.96pt  +10.06pt (+0.11%)                                                      
▷ 야간선물지수 277.45pt  -0.40pt (-0.15%) 환산지수 1,984.04 pt                                                      

◈ 국내외 Check Point                         
▷ WHO, 코로나19 위험도 "매우 높음", 치료제도 "진척"       
    - 다우지수, 익스트림공포에 최근 고점 대비 하락폭 4,887pt
       → Fed 개입에 지난주말 뉴욕시장 바닥신호 발생
    - 골드만삭스, "올 해 美기업 순익 제로"....골드만, 씨티 증시도 7월까지 추가 하락 경고   
    - IMF "코로나19, 글로벌 경제 영향…성장률 하향 검토"     
▷ Fed, 4월 Repo 시장 개입과 6월 단기채 매입 종료, 5~ 6월 Tapering 예고→ 불가능 할 것      
    - 3/18 FOMC 코로나19 충격에 금리인하 가능성 고조  
    - 금리인하 베팅...3월 95% 임박, 6월 추가 인하 기대감까지 확산                   
▷ 中, 확진자 규모 둔화 확연....3월말까지 공장 가동 100% 추정    
    - JP모건 "2Q 중국 경제 15% 성장할 것"  
▷ 코로나19→ 습기+ 더위→ 사멸     
    - 3월 경칩 ~ 3월 FOMC 사이가 고비, 이후 축소될 것
▷ 달러인덱스 급락세 지속    
    - 주요국 증시 고점대비 15% 이상 하락...약세장(20%)으로 전환 우려 확산  
▷ 신용/담보대출 관련 담보부족 발생
    - 2일 아침 반대매매 물량 소화 후 낙폭 축소 혹은 반등시도 나올 듯  
    - 금일, 원화도 1,200원 이하로 절상 가속화 예상

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                 
    지난주 글로벌 투자시장은 "아비규환" 이었죠. 이로 인해 트럼프는 연준에 "시장에 곧 개입해 주기를 희망"한다고 했고, 파월 Fed의장은 긴급 성명을 통해 "적절학 행동하겠다"고 했으며, 불라드 총재는 "글로벌 팬데믹"시 "금리인하" 가능성을 언급했습니다. 정치경제계에서 일사불란한 모습을 보이면서 뉴욕시장은 낙폭을 크게 줄이는 흐름으로 마감했습니다. 이 날 자산시장에 특이한 움직임이 나타났죠. 위험시장은 바닥신호가 나왔고 일부 안전자산은 폭락하는 한편, 달러인덱스도 가파른 하락세를 보이고 있습니다. "시장은 코로나19를 핑계로 원하는 금리인하"를 얻어낸 것일까요? 코로나19 대유행관련 안심하기는 이르지만 단기간 패닉에 따른 반등시도가 이번주 가파르게 있을 것 입니다. 

    금일 시장입니다. 반도체지수와 MSCI ETF 한국물 반등이 인상적입니다. 야간선물지수는 소폭이지만 하락했습니다. 금일 아침 담보부족 반대매매도 있을 것이고...이를 토대로 보면 코스피는 보합이하에서 출발 후 상승전환 폭을 확대할 가능성이 높습니다. 역외환율 가파른 절하와 달러인덱스 급락이 시작되었기 때문입니다.