●[2020/02/28/금요일]이제는 미국 지역사회 감염....

●[2020/02/28/금요일]이제는 美 지역사회 감염 여부를... 

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                     

◈ 美 ; 코로나19관련 WHO 경고 및 美 지역사회 감염 조짐에 "투매"                                             
▷ Dow -4.42%, S&P500 -4.44%, Nasdaq -4.61%                                                       

◈ EU ; 코로나19 유럽 대유행에 "급락"                                                     
▷ Stoxx 50 -3.40%                                                     

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                     
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.099 (전일 1.088)... 전년말 1.121                                                     
▷ 달러/엔→ 109.913 (전일 110.371)... 전년말 108.615                                                     
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.093% p (전일 1.188% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.294% p (전일 1.367% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                   
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,642.75 (전일 $1,6433.20)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                   
▷ WTI→ $46.89 (전일 $48.81)....전년말 $61.20                                                     

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                     
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 14pt (극공포), VIX 35.86 (+30.12%)                                                     
▷ Dollar Index 98.418pt(-0.53%), 3월 금리인하 확률 59.8%                                                     
                   
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                             

♣ 한국 동향                                                      
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,054.89 pt  -21.88 pt(-1.05%)/ Kosdaq 638.17 pt  -16.46pt(-2.51%)                                                              
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                     
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 54.88pt  -1.08pt (-1.93%)                                                     
▷ 야간선물지수 276.00pt  -1.75pt (-0.63%) 환산지수 2,041.94 pt                                                     

◈ 국내외 Check Point                        
▷ WHO, 코로나19 결정적 시점 도래 "전세계 대유행"임박      
    - 아시아→ 유럽→ 美, 지역사회 전파 조짐 
    - 골드만삭스, "올 해 美기업 순익 제로"....골드만, 씨티 증시도 7월까지 추가 하락 경고       
▷ 中, 확진자 규모 둔화 확연....3월말까지 공장 가동 100% 추정   
    - JP모건 "2Q 중국 경제 15% 성장할 것" 
▷ Fed, 4월 Repo 시장 개입 및 6월 단기채 매입 종료 , 5~ 6월 Tapering 예고 불구, 불가능     
    - 코로나19 확산으로 3/18 FOMC 이목 집중 
    - 금리인하 베팅...3월 60% 임박, 6월 추가 인하 기대감까지 확산                  
▷ 달러인덱스 99pt 붕괴, 위험자산 투심악화 불과 안전자산 역시 혼조   
    - 주요국 증시 고점대비 10% 이상 하락...조정장 진입  

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                
    신천지로 인한 코로나19 가 기하급수적으로 확산되는 한편 세계 대유행 조짐을 보이고 있습니다. 이에 따라 세계증시를 비롯해 코스피 충격이 확대되고 있는 상황. 안타깝지만 中처럼 확산세가 진정되지 않는다면 韓을 비롯한 각 국 증시는 진정되는데는 시간이 소요될 수 밖에 없습니다. 이는 기업실적 둔화 현실화에 따른 영향은 당연하고 "공포"가 극에 달하고 있기 때문입니다. 안타깝지만 이로 인해 2,000pt (현재로서는 P/E 10 수준, 기업실적 악화시 더 낮아질 수 있음)지지를 테스트 할 것으로 보입니다. 

그럼에도 전략은 2,000pt에 가까운 구간은 "현금으로 분할매수" 전략으로 대응해야합니다. 그 이유는 앞전 다수 시황에서 안내해드린 각 국의 유동성공급 및 재정정책으로 인한 효과, 최근 급락으로 인한 선반영, PBR 기준 부담없는 구간이며 낸드플래쉬+ D 램 가격 상승으로 국내 핵심IT기업 실적은 예상보다는 안정적일 가능성이 높기 때문입니다. 또한 시장을 선행했던 달러인덱스가 급속도로 절하되고 있기 때문입니다.

 금일 시장입니다. 코로나19가 中,진정/ 韓.日 확산 후반/ 美.EU 확산 초기 흐름을 보이면서 증시도 비슷한 패턴을 보이고 있는 가운데 반도체지수 및  야간선물이 급락세를 보였습니다. 그러나 역외환율은 절상을 보이며 안정적 흐름을 유지했죠. 금일 코스피는 2,040~ 2,045pt내에서 출발하겠지만 달러인덱스 급락과 의미있는 구간에 진입한 시장은 제한된 폭이지만 낙폭 축소 시도를 하며 마감 할 것으로 보입니다.