●[2020/02/27/목요일]불안을 다소 누르고

●[2020/02/27/목요일]불안속 기지개

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                   

◈ 美 ; 코로나19, 전세계 대유행 우려로 변동성 확대 속 "혼조"                                           
▷ Dow -0.26%, S&P500 -0.17%, Nasdaq +0.27%                                                     

◈ EU ; 코로나19 전세계 대유행 우려로 변동성 확대 속 "혼조"                                                   
▷ Stoxx 50 +0.14%                                                   

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                   
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.088 (전일 1.088)... 전년말 1.121                                                   
▷ 달러/엔→ 110.371 (전일 110.060)... 전년말 108.615                                                   
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.188% p (전일 1.206% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                  
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.367% p (전일 1.327% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                 
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,643.20 (전일 $1,650.80)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                 
▷ WTI→ $48.81 (전일 $49.82)....전년말 $61.20                                                   

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                   
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 21pt (극공포), VIX 27.84 (-0.04%)                                                   
▷ Dollar Index 99.023pt(+0.14%), 3월 금리인하 확률 35.4%                                                   
                 
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                           

♣ 한국 동향                                                    
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,076.77 pt  +26.84 pt(-1.28%)/ Kosdaq 654.63 pt  -2.32pt(-0.35%)                                                            
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                   
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 56.03pt  +0.74pt (+1.34%)                                                   
▷ 야간선물지수 279.20pt  -0.80pt (-0.29%) 환산지수 2,070.84 pt                                                   

◈ 국내외 Check Point                      
▷ 트럼프, 코로나19 기자회견...질병통제예방센터(CDC) 관계자 배석      
    - 발생국가 입국금지 및 검역 강화 등 입국절차 강화 조치 
    - 주가급락에 격분, 참모들 코로나19 발언 통제     
▷ 中, 확진자 규모 둔화 확연....3월말까지 공장 가동 100% 추정 
    - 단, 중 광둥성 "코로나19 완치 후 14%는 다시 양성반응"
▷ 美/ EU 코로나19 대규모 지역감염 우려 확산
▷ 2/27 금통위...금리인하 예상 및 경기부양 본격화    
▷ Fed, 4월 Repo 시장 개입 및 6월 단기채 매입 종료 , 5~ 6월 Tapering 예고 불구,     
    - 코로나19 확산으로 3/18 FOMC 이목 집중...클라리다 부의장, 면밀 모니터링 중  
    - 금리인하 베팅...3월 30%대, 6월 60%대로 급증                
▷ Kospi P/E 10.5 = 2,082pt, 10 =2,000pt, 11 = 2,180pt, 11.5 = 2,282pt      

♣ 금일 투자 전략                              
    다우지수가 최근 고점대비 금번 저점 기준 하락 폭은 9% 정도, 코스피도 9% 정도죠. 일반적으로 10% 이상 하락시 조정, 20% 하락시 베어마켓 전환 기준을 고려하면 현재 상황을 추세가 하락으로 전환 했다고 판단하기는 일러 보입니다. 그만큼 공포감이 컸다는 의미지만 중국의 확진자수 축소 및 각 정부의 적극적 재정정책, 달러인덱스 약화 등을 고려하면 현 싯점에서 과연 매도가 적절한지는 고민해 봐야 할 것입니다. 물론 회복은 시간을 필요로 합니다만 이 흐름은 이제 급락을 지나, "하방경직성"을 형성하고 시간이 지나면서 "점진적 회복"의 수순을 이어갈 것입니다.

    금일 시장입니다. 반도체 지수와 MSCI ETF 한국물 상승, 역외 환율 절상은 긍정적이었는데 야간선물지수는 하락했습니다. 코스피는 5~ 6pt 하락 출발이 예상됩니다. 달러인덱스도 상승했고 코라나19 우려는 지속으로 장 중 흐름 역시 변동성을 확대하는 즉 마이너스와 플러스의 냉온탕을 반복하는 불안한 흐름을 보일 것으로 보입니다. 그러나 추가 하락 보다는 하방경직성을 확보해 가는 시기가 되지 않을까 싶습니다.