●[2020/02/26/수요일]상상력이 필요한 시기

●[2020/02/26/수요일]안전자산 쏠림 지속 

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                  

◈ 美 ; 코로나19, 전세계 대유행 우려 지속에 "급락"                                          
▷ Dow -3.15%, S&P500 -2.96%, Nasdaq -2.77%                                                    

◈ EU ; 코로나19 전세계 대유행 우려 지속에 "급락"                                                  
▷ Stoxx 50 -2.07%                                                  

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                  
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.088 (전일 1.085)... 전년말 1.121                                                  
▷ 달러/엔→ 110.060 (전일 110.733)... 전년말 108.615                                                  
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.206% p (전일 1.250% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                 
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.327% p (전일 1.366% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,650.80 (전일 $1,662.45)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                
▷ WTI→ $49.82 (전일 $51.26)....전년말 $61.20                                                  

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                  
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 23pt (극공포), VIX 28.50 (+13.86%)                                                  
▷ Dollar Index 98.915pt(-0.37%), 3월 금리인하 확률 31.0%                                                  
                
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                          

♣ 한국 동향                                                   
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,103.61 pt  +24.57 pt(+1.18%)/ Kosdaq 656.95pt  +17.66pt(+2.76%)                                                           
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                  
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 55.34pt  +0.02pt (+0.04%)                                                  
▷ 야간선물지수 277.95pt  -6.75pt (-2.37%) 환산지수 2,053.74 pt                                                  

◈ 국내외 Check Point                     
▷ 코로나19 글로벌 상황....유통망 붕괴 속 경기불안 우려 지속     
    - 中 "24개 성 확진자 0명...통제 적극 개선" 소식에 일시적 안도     
▷ JP모건 "한국 코로나 사태 3월 20일 정점, 최대 1만명 감염"   
    - 올 韓성장률 전망 속속 1%대로…노무라·모건스탠리 "0% 성장도" 
    - 추경10조 및 반도체 가격 상승 등 감안시 성장률 0%는 과도 
▷ 2/27 금통위...금리인하 예상 및 경기부양 본격화   
▷ Fed, 4월 Repo 시장 개입 및 6월 단기채 매입 종료 , 5~ 6월 Tapering 예고 불구,    
    - 코로나19 확산으로 3/18 FOMC 이목 집중...클라리다 부의장, 면밀 모니터링 중            
▷ 므누신 "코로나19 경제영향 파악 3~ 4주 필요...美GDP 0.5%pt 타격"        
▷ Kospi P/E 10.5 = 2,082pt, 10 =2,000pt, 11 = 2,180pt, 11.5 = 2,282pt     

♣ 금일 투자 전략                             
   전일 환율이 큰폭 절상되면서 코스피가 "낙폭과대+ 中확진자수 0" 소식을 바탕으로 반등했지만 상승폭은 하락폭의 1/3 수준도 안되었죠. 이는 일시적 흐름으로 아직 추세 안정권으로 접어들었다고 보기는 어렵다는 의미입니다. 

   지난 밤 글로벌 이슈의 핵심은 "글로벌 대유행 우려 지속"으로 볼 수 있습니다.우려라는 표현을 했지만 현실화죠. 아시아를 넘어 이탈리아등 유럽도 심상치 않고...세계 경제에 영향이 큰 국가로 전이도 가파른 한편 美마저 10억불 예산을 의회요청을 추진했죠. "공급망 붕괴 우려"는 "코로나19 대유행 우려"와 "글로벌 경제 둔화"를 현실화 시키고 있는 것이죠. 그러나 中은 충격 후 반등 중이고 韓은 반영 뒷부분, 美이나 유럽은 반영 중, 日은 회복 불가, 최악으로 좀 더 구분해서 바라볼 필요가 있다는 판단입니다

    韓증시는 기업실적 개선이 기대감으로 끝나고 지난해 둔화가 더 이어진다는 전제하에 P/E 기준 10.5배 및 매물지지대를 기준한다면 2,050~ 2,080pt는 의미있는 구간입니다. 현재 공포감으로 이 구간이 무시되고 2,050pt를 하향이탈한다면 자산가치상으로도 상당한 저평가 구간이 되므로 장기 관점에서는 편입이 맞는 것이죠. 그러나 전일 말씀드린대로 시간이 필요합니다. 즉 하락은 분명 매수기회지만 신용이 아닌 현금매수 대응 구간입니다.

    금일 시장으로 가볼까요? 반도체지수, 야간선물지수 모두 급락이죠 그러나 역외환율은 절상입니다. 과도했던 상황에서 정부의 입금이 효과를 낸 것 것일까요? 어쨌든 Kospi는 2,050pt 전후 출발이 예상됩니다. 장 중 흐름은 달러인덱스 추이와 최근 韓시장의 하락폭 감안시 2,050pt 전후에서 등락을 지속하다 막판 낙폭 축소 시도가 있을 것으로 보입니다.