●[2020/02/25/화요일]전세계 Risk-Off

●[2020/02/25/화요일]어처구니 없는 코로나19 확산 전세계 Risk-Off라지만 

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                

◈ 美 ; 코로나19, 전세계 대유행과 세계 경기 충격 우려에  "급락"                                        
▷ Dow -3.56%, S&P500 -3.32%, Nasdaq -3.71%                                                  

◈ EU ; 코로나19 전세계 대유행에 "급락"                                                
▷ Stoxx 50 -4.01%                                                

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.085 (전일 1.084)... 전년말 1.121                                                
▷ 달러/엔→ 110.733 (전일 111.599)... 전년말 108.615                                                
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.250% p (전일 1.354% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                               
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.366% p (전일 1.473% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                              
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,662.45 (전일 $1,645.95)...전년말 $1,519.95                                              
▷ WTI→ $51.26 (전일 $53.44)....전년말 $61.20                                                

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 29pt (중립), VIX 25.03 (+46.55%)                                                
▷ Dollar Index 99.220pt(+0.03%), 3월 금리인하 확률 24.4%                                                

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                                                
▷ 韓: 소비자신뢰지수.                                               
▷ 中: 없음.          
▷ 유로존: 없음.                                
▷ 美: 레드북, 주택가격지수, S&P/Case-Shiller 주택가격지수.         
              
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                        

♣ 한국 동향                                                 
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,079.04 pt  -83.80 pt(-3.87%)/ Kosdaq 639.29pt  -28.70pt(-4.30%)                                                         
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 55.32pt  -3.05pt (-5.23%)                                                
▷ 야간선물지수 278.50pt  -2.65pt (-0.94%) 환산지수 2,059.44 pt                                                

◈ 국내외 Check Point                   
▷ 코로나19 전세계 대유행...아시아→ 유럽으로    
    - 글로벌 공급망 붕괴우려는 경기둔화 현실로        
▷ 달러 유동성 지표 양호 불구, 코로나19로 원화 약세 가속화           
    - Kospi 2,079pt (P/E=10.49)  
    - Kospi 2월 저점 이탈, 2019. 12월 저점 2,053pt, 10월 저점  2,010pt 
    - VKospi  19.80pt→ 23.65pt 로 갭상승(직전 고점 23.82pt) 
▷ 2/27 금통위...금리인하 예상    
    - 정부 대규모 추경편성 10조 공식화    
▷ Fed, 4월 Repo 시장 개입 및 6월 단기채 매입 종료 , 5~ 6월 Tapering 예고 불구,  
    - 코로나19 확산으로 3/18 FOMC에서 통화정책 변경 언급예상... 2020년 2회 인하 추정          
▷ 므누신 "코로나19 경제영향 파악 3~ 4주 필요...美GDP 0.5%pt 타격"      
▷ 中 코로나 19로 양회 연기 결정.  

♣ 금일 투자 전략                           
   韓內 코로나19 확진자가 900명에 육박하며 1~2주가 중요한 상황. 美에선 므누신 장관의 발언을 보면 세계 대유행의 피크는 3~ 4주가 될 것으로 보입니다. 대략 3월말 정도. 기온의 변화와 함께 신약 개발 가능성의 의미로 추정됩니다. 어쨌거나 그 전까지는 쉽지 않은 시기가 될 수 있다는 이야기겠죠. 현 싯점에서 투자관련 핵심은 매수냐? 매도냐? 일 것입니다. 환율 절하 속도를 보면 여전히 공포감이 들지만  KOSPI 변동성지수가 전일 갭상승하며 직전고점 부근 23.82pt에 육박했고, 지수는 갭하락에 장대음봉 그리고 대량거래가 수반된 상태. P/E로는 10.49로 금일 하락은 그 이하라는 점에서 부담은 크지 않습니다. 

   이와 함께 원달러 1220.20원으로 달러유동성 부족에 따른 영향이 아닌 韓內 코로나19 확진자 급증에 따른 영향으로 韓보다 더 심각한 中, 日 대비 과도한 흐름이었죠. 특히 中의 부채나 경기 충격은 韓 대비 훨씬 큼에도 불구, 상당히 회복했다는 점에서 韓 역시 글로벌 자금의 이탈쇼크가 진정되면 회복이 빨라질 수 있다는 판단입니다. 전일 갭하락에 이어 금일 하락을 주목헤야 하는 충분한 이유인 셈이죠. 물론, 투심 불안에 회복은 시간이 걸릴 수 있으며 금일 저점 대비 좀 더 하락은 있을 수 있습니다만 이제는 2,050pt 미만, 2,010pt 가까운 지수라면 투매에 동참하는 시기는 아닐 것입니다. 

   지금은 큰 흐름을 보고 진입을 고려 하셔도 됩니다. 단, 시간이 소요될 수 있으니 신용 보다는 현금매수로 대응해야 하는 시기일 것입니다. 

   금일 시장입니다. 역외환율의 변화는 크지 않았으나 반도체지수 및 야간선물은 급락했습니다 므누신 장관의 언급과 함께 뉴욕이 코로나19와 관련 한국, 이탈리아, 이란 등 중국외 확산을 세계 대유행으로 판단하기 시작했습니다. 금일도 하락 2,060pt 미만에서 출발이 예상되며 환율이 진정되지 않는다면 외국인 매도가 지속되는 한편, 담보부족 물량 출회로 장 중 추가 하락이 있을 수 있습니다. 그러나 전일 대량거래에 장대음봉이라는 점에서 금일 낙폭이 2,010pt에 가까워진다면 하방경직성이 형성되면서 아래꼬리를 길게 다는 하루가 될 것으로 추정됩니다