●[2020/01/10/금요일]추세적 상승을 믿어야....

●[2020/01/10/금요일]추세적 상승을 믿어야....


♣ 글로벌 동향                                      

◈ 美 ; 이란과 대화 소식+ 연준 부의장 발언에 "상승"             
▷ Dow  +0.76%,    S&P500  +0.67%,    Nasdaq  +0.81%                                      

◈ EU ; 美.이란 전면전 우려 해소에 "상승"                                      
▷ Stoxx 50    +0.62%                                                            

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                      
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.110(전일 1.110)... 전년말 1.121                                      
▷ 달러/엔→ 109.509(전일 108.110)... 전년말 108.615                                      
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.578%p (전일 1.578%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                                      
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.856%p (전일 1.868%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                                      
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,554.30 (전일 $1,560.20)...전년말 $1,519.95                                      
▷ WTI→ $59.56 (전일 $59.98)....전년말 $61.20                                      

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                      
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 93pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 12.54(-6.77%)                                      
▷ Dollar Index 97.132pt(+0.14%), 1월 금리인하 확률 8.90%                                      

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                                      
▷ 韓: 없음.                                      
▷ 中: 없음.                                      
▷ 유로존: 없음.        
▷ 美: 실업률, 정부관련 고용자수, 시간당 평균수입, 제조업 고용자수, 도매 재고, WASD 보고서.      

♣ 한국 동향                                      
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,186.02pt   +34.95pt(+1.62%)/ Kosdaq 666.05pt   +25.11pt(+3.92%)                   
                             
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                      
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 61.96pt  +0.58pt (+0.94%)                                      
▷ 야간선물지수 294.60pt  -0.40pt (-0.14%) 환산지수 2,183.49pt                                      

◈ 국내외 Check Point                    
▷ 미국과 이란이 외교채널(스위스)을 통해 대화 중 에도 불구 미군기지 주변 긴장감 지속
    - 美의 對이란 경제 제재 및 핵협상 추진 
    - 시아파 무장세력측 보복테러 우려 및 美, 동맹국 호르무즈해 수호연합 파병 요구와 이란 반발 가능성
▷ Fed부의장 클라리다 "美소비가 매우 좋다"...경기에 대한 자신감 표명
▷ 장 중 정보, 해외, 환율 동향 https://t.me/happystock5 (텔레그램 설치 후 클릭) 
▷ 트럼프, 美中 무역협상 2단계 곧 시행, 합의는 대선 후로 연기 가능성 시사...美 기업관세 불가피
▷ BOE 총재 경기회복 확실하지 않다...금리인하 시사
▷ CES 2020(1/10까지), JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13)                  
▷ 1/11 대만 총통 선거...양안 관계 변화 때 글로벌 불확실성 확대             
▷ 1/13 ~ 15 백악관에서 美中 무역합의 서명…차후 2단계 논의는 베이징, 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한         
    
♣ 금일 투자 전략 
 지난 밤 이슈가 좀 많았습니다. "① 美과 이란이 외교채널을 통해 대화중"이며 "스위스가 긴장완화에 노력"하고 있다는 소식이 있었고, "② Fed 부의장이 美소비가 매우 좋다며 경기에 대한 긍정적 분위기"를 전했죠. 영국은행 총재는 "③ 경기회복이 확실치 않다며 금리인하 가능성 시사"하며 글로벌 유동성 확대에 힘을 보태기도 했습니다. 설명드리지 않아도 긍정적인 내용이죠. 

 그러나 부정적 소식도 있습니다. "① 중동지역 주둔 미군기지 주변 미사일 폭발등 긴장감 지속"과 ② BOE 총재 발언은 달러 약세를 둔화시키는 요인"이기도 하고 "③ 테헤란로 상공에서 폭발한 보잉기 사고에 대해서 트럼프가 의문을 제기한 한편 이란이 블랙박스를 내놓지 않고 있다"는 소식은 부담일 수 밖에 없죠. 여기다 "④ 트럼프가 2단계 협상의 합의는 대선 후로 연기 할 수 있다는 발언과 中당국자 미중합의로 농산물 수입쿼더 늘리지 않아"라는 발언은 부담일 수 밖에 없습니다.

  이 내용을 통해 시장을 정리해 보면 "투심을 일시적, 제한적으로 위축" 시킬 것으로 보입니다. 그러나 워낙 신흥국에 대한 기대감이 커지고 있고, 위안화와 원화 절상속도를 고려하면 "그럼에도 불구하고"라는 단어를 떠올리게 합니다. 일단 금일은 전일 1월 옵션만기 영향으로 종가 인위적 상승을 고려하면 2~ 3pt 약세 출발을 보일 수 있으나 반도체지수 상승과 역외환율 하락이 진행된 만큼 장 중 흐름은 상승 반전할 가능성이 높습니다. 아울러 시장은 추세적 상승을 이미 시작한 상태니 일일 변동에 너무 부담을 갖을 필요는 없을 것입니다.