●[2020/01/08/수요일]보합권 등락이 예상되지만

●[2020/01/08/수요일]보합권 등락이 예상되지만

♣ 글로벌 동향                                  

◈ 美 ; 반도체주 강세에도 불구, 중동발 지정학적 리스크 부담에 "하락"         
▷ Dow  -0.42%,    S&P500  -0.28%,    Nasdaq  -0.03%                                  

◈ EU ; 이란 전면전 우려속 "혼조"                                  
▷ Stoxx 50    +0.18%                                                        

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                  
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.114(전일 1.119)... 전년말 1.121                                  
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.520(전일 108.413)... 전년말 108.615                                  
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.540%p (전일 1.540%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                                  
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.817%p (전일 1.802%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                                  
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,574.30 (전일 $1,568.80)...전년말 $1,519.95                                  
▷ WTI→ $62.70 (전일 $63.27)....전년말 $61.20                                  

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                  
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 89pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 13.79(-0.43%)                                  
▷ Dollar Index 96.662pt(-0.32%), 1월 금리인하 확률 10.0%                                  

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                                  
▷ 韓: 없음.                                  
▷ 中: 없음.                                  
▷ 유로존: 기업신뢰지수, 경제심리지수, 산업심리지수, 소비자신뢰도추세, 소비자신뢰지지수, 서비스 심리.    
▷ 美: 모기지 신청건수, 소비자신용.  

♣ 한국 동향                                  
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,175.54pt   +20.47pt(+0.95%)/ Kosdaq 663.44pt   +8.13pt(+1.24%)               
                         
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                  
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 61.34pt  +0.65pt (+1.07%)                                  
▷ 야간선물지수 292.55pt  +0.150pt (+0.05%) 환산지수 2,176.66pt                                  

◈ 국내외 Check Point                
▷ 중동지역 불안은 여전....이라크 최대 정파 수장 "美 철수안하면 제2의 베트남될 것" 
    - 이란, 핵카드+ 호르무즈해협 봉쇄 등 전면전 선언→ 유가 급등, 세계 경제성장 0.3%p↓, 뉴욕증시 20%폭락    
    - 단, 현재 월가 분석상 이란은 전쟁비용 부담으로 전면전은 쉽지 않을 것으로 전망   
▷ Libor-OIS 스프레드 반락 시작....달러 유동성 증가 
    - 위안화 200일 이평선 이탈, 원화 동조화 
▷ 中, 가계예금(1경1천707조원/ GDP대비 80%)) 주식펀드로 전환 촉진키로…증시 부양 시도 
    - '중국제조 2025'를 위해 국가 대신 자본시장에서 조달하는 전략으로 전환 
▷ 1/9 옵션만기....PR매수세 기대   
▷ CES 2020(1/7 ~ 10), JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13) 이벤트 드리븐, 낙폭과대주 주목               
▷ 1/11 대만 총통 선거...양안 관계 변화 때 글로벌 불확실성 확대         
▷ 1/15 백악관에서 美中 무역합의 서명…차후 2단계 논의는 베이징       
▷ 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한         

♣ 금일 투자 전략                                 
 이란이 전면전 선언을 했지만 월가에서는 이란이 전쟁비용 부담으로 실현 가능성이 적은 것으로 보고 있습니다. 이 보다는 테러 형식으로 시간 끌기를 하지 않겠냐는 것이 중론입니다. 어쨌거나 이 부분은 월가의 매도의 명분이 되고 있는데...과거 "총성은 주가"를 올린다고 당장은 충격이지만 차후 경제에는 도움이 될 것입니다. 어쨌든 지금 우려는 유가 급등으로 인한 인플레이션 그리고 Fed의 통화정책이라는 것은 수일전 시황에서 체크해 드렸습니다.

현재 상황을 보면 뉴욕증시의 매도 빌미가 되면서 금 값등 안전자산이 상승한 것은 사실이지만 생각보다 더디며 뉴욕지수 역시 추세내의 등락입니다. 또한 달러약세에도 불구 유가의 상승속도가 더디고 美변동성 지수는 첫날 외에는 크게 변화가 없는 상황. 그렇다면 이번 상황은 과도하게 반응할 필요가 없다고 보여집니다. 위안화 및 원화 절상 속도도 그렇고 中의 부양책이나 달러 유동성 증가를 감안 단기 충격은 저가매수 대응이 바람직 하다는 판단입니다.

1차 지지대는 2,155pt를 중심으로 저가매수 대응이 유효하며 금일 증시는 소폭 플러스로 출발해 등락을 거듭하는 하루가 될 수 있는 만큼 동요하지 말고 시장을 지켜봐야겠습니다.