●[2020/01/14/화요일]가파른 원화강세, 직전 고점 넘어선 KOSPI

●[2020/01/14/화요일]가파른 원화강세 그리고 직전 고점을 넘어선 코스피 

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                      

◈ 美 ; 美, 中환율 조작국 지정 철회로 합의 기대에 "상승"             
▷ Dow  +0.29%,    S&P500  +0.709%,    Nasdaq  +1.04%                                      

◈ EU ; 美中 1단계 무역합의 앞두고 관망세에 "혼조"                                      
▷ Stoxx 50    -0.26%                                                            

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                        
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.113(전일 1.112)... 전년말 1.121                                        
▷ 달러/엔→ 109.922(전일 109.506)... 전년말 108.615                                        
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.588%p (전일 1.570%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                                        
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.848%p (전일 1.820%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                                        
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,548.45 (전일 $1,563.20)...전년말 $1,519.95                                        
▷ WTI→ $58.08 (전일 $59.12)....전년말 $61.20                                        

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                        
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 89pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 12.32(-1.91%)                                        
▷ Dollar Index 97.107pt(+0.03%), 1월 금리인하 확률 13.3%                                        

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                                         
▷ 韓: 없음.                                         
▷ 中: 수출/입, 무역수지, 민간부분 대출, M2통화 공급량, 신규 위안화 대출.                                     
▷ 유로존: 없음.           
▷ 美: NFIB 기업낙관지수, 근원 인플레이션율, 인플레이션율, 레드북, IBD/TIPP 경제낙관지수.            

♣️ 한국 동향                                        
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,229.36pt   +22.87pt(+1.04%)/ Kosdaq 679.22pt   +6.19pt(+0.92%)                                             
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                        
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 64.09pt  +1.40pt (+2.23%)                                        
▷ 야간선물지수 302.45pt  +1.80pt (+0.60%) 환산지수 2,242.61pt        
                                 
◈ 국내외 Check Point                    
▷ 美中무역협상 1단계 합의 서명전 중국 환율조작국 해제 
    - 트럼프 2단계 1/15일 후 곧 시작, 1단계 합의는 15일 넘길 수 도, 결과는 대선 후    
    - 中, 美中무역협상 2단계 불확실성에 대규모 유동성 공급 조기 대응   
▷ 가파른 달러 약세에 가파른 아시아 통화와 증시  
    - 위안화 6.9위안 이탈 및 원화 1,150원대 중반 등 절상 가속화) 
▷ 韓 KOSPI 12개월 EPS 추정치 하향세 중단,  수출은 증가 
       → EPS 추정치 상향시 멀티플 가능→ 2019. 4 고점 2,252pt 돌파 가능 
    - 구리 재고 급감...글로벌 경제 호조세 예고
▷ JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13 ~ 16)                        
▷ 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한         
    
♣️ 금일 투자 전략
    지난 밤 이슈는 美이 中과 1단계 무역합의를 위해서 "환율 조작국 해제"를 했다는 것이겠죠. 그러나 관찰대상국의 지위는 유지됩니다. 어쨌든 "美中 무역협상 1단계 합의 가능성을 높였다"는 것 자체로 의미를 부여할 수 있겠고 이 부분은 투심에 긍정적 역할을 했습니다. 그러나 그 폭은 제한적인 것이 아쉽습니다.  글로벌 시장에서는 구리 재고 급감과 신흥국 통화의 강세가 눈에 띕니다. 

이미 전망해 드렸던대로 신흥국 시장에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있는 것이죠. 韓시장의 경우는 12개월 EPS 추정치 하락세가 멈췄고, 증시도 직전고점을 돌파하면서 추가적 상승을 기대하게 하고 있습니다. S&P500 지수가 지난 4Q 기업실적 감소에도 P/E 19배를 유지하고 있으니 P/E 11배인 KOSPI의 경우 지정학적 리스크를 감안하더라도 멀티플을 적용하면 지난해 4월 고점 돌파도 가능하지 않을까 싶습니다.  그러나 이 흐름에는 환율추이와 기업실적을 반드시 체크하면서 대응해야 한다는 것은 잊어서는 안되겠죠.

금일 시장으로 가보죠. 반도체지수와 야간선물지수의 상승세를 감안하면 10~ 13pt 상승으로 출발할 것 같습니다. 다만, 달러인덱스 상승 및 역외환율의 상승을 감안하면 시초가를 넘어가는 강한 흐름 보다는 시초가 내의 흐름은 유지될 것으로 보입니다.