●[2020/01/07/화요일]불안하지만 다시 반등으로.....

●[2020/01/07/화요일]불안하지만 다시 반등으로..... 

♣ 글로벌 동향                               

◈ 美 ; 美과 이란 분위기 격화 지속에도 불구 전면전 희박에 "상승      
▷ Dow  +0.24%,    S&P500  +0.35%,    Nasdaq  +0.56%                               

◈ EU ; 美과 이란 충돌 우려 지속에 "하락승"                               
▷ Stoxx 50    -0.55%                                                     

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                               
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.119(전일 1.116)... 전년말 1.121                               
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.413(전일 108.093)... 전년말 108.615                               
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.540%p (전일 1.5331%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                               
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.802%p (전일 1.793%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                               
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,568.80 (전일 $1,555.15)...전년말 $1,519.95                               
▷ WTI→ $63.27 (전일 $63.03)....전년말 $61.20                               

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                               
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 93pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 13.85(-1.21%)                               
▷ Dollar Index 96.312pt(-0.228%), 1월 금리인하 확률 7.80%                               

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                               
▷ 韓: 경상수지.                               
▷ 中: 외환보유고.                               
▷ 유로존: 근원인플레이션율, 소매판매, 인플레이션율.                               
▷ 美: 수출/입, 무역수지, 레드북, ISM비제조업 고용, 공장주문, ISM비제조업 활동, 비제조업 서비스업 PMI, 공장재주문. 

♣ 한국 동향                               
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,155.07pt   -21.39pt(-0.98%)/ Kosdaq 655.31pt   -14.62pt(-2.18%)            
                      
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                               
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 60.69pt  -0.22pt (-0.36%)                               
▷ 야간선물지수 289.90pt  +0.90pt (-0.31%) 환산지수 2,161.78pt                               

◈ 국내외 Check Point             
▷ 중동지역 긴장 고조 지속 그러나 전면전 가능성은 희박에 글로벌 증시 안도   
▷ 1/9 옵션만기....PR매수세 기대
▷ CES 2020(1/7 ~ 10), JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13) 이벤트 드리븐, 낙폭과대주 주목            
▷ 1/11 대만 총통 선거...양안 관계 변화 때 글로벌 불확실성 확대      
▷ 1/15 백악관에서 美中 무역합의 서명…차후 2단계 논의는 베이징    
▷ 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한      

♣ 금일 투자 전략                              
 20일 이동평균선인  2,155pt에 지지를 확인한 코스피는 야간선물지수 흐름을 감안시 5~ 6pt 반등 출발이 예상됩니다. 美과 이란 충돌에 대한 불확실성 반영과 두 국가가 전면전으로 가지 않을 것이라는 안도감등이 작용할 가능성이 있기 때문이죠. 여기다 월가에서는 유가 급등이 제한적일 가능성이 높기 때문에 인플레이션에 대한 우려는 크지 않은 것으러 추정하면서 이 또한 시장의 불안을 줄이는 요인으로 작용할 것으로 보입니다.

다만, 중동지역 긴장과 美中 무역합의가 완전히 마무리되지 않은 것이라는 점을 고려하면 간헐적 노이즈는 지속될 전망입니다. 그러나 이런 내용과 달러약세의 추세화를 고려하면 신흥국으로의 자금 이동은 지속될 가능성이 높아 긍정적 관점은 유지해야 할 것입니다.

한마디로 노이즈에 따른 시장 스크래치가 간헐적 나타나면서 변동성을 주겠지만 추세적 상승에는 여전히 유효하다는 판단이며 코스피의 상승은 기업실적 추가 확대 또는 모멘텀이 필요하며 그 전까지는 1월 이벤트 드리븐으로 코스닥과 중소형주가 움직임을 이어갈 전망입니다.