●[2020/01/09/목요일]또 다시 반등, 이란 상황 종료

●[2020/01/09/목요일]또 다시 반등, 이란 상황 종료

♣ 글로벌 동향                                     

◈ 美 ; "이란 파국"피한 트럼프...안도감에 "상승"            
▷ Dow  +0.56%,    S&P500  +0.49%,    Nasdaq  +0.67%                                     

◈ EU ; 美.이란 봉합 가능성에 "상승"                                     
▷ Stoxx 50    +0.35%                                                           

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                     
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.110(전일 1.114)... 전년말 1.121                                     
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.110(전일 108.520)... 전년말 108.615                                     
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.578%p (전일 1.540%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                                     
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.868%p (전일 1.817%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                                     
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,560.20 (전일 $1,574.30)...전년말 $1,519.95                                     
▷ WTI→ $59.98 (전일 $62.70)....전년말 $61.20                                     

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                     
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 91pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 13.45(-2.47%)                                     
▷ Dollar Index 97.037pt(+0.35%), 1월 금리인하 확률 10.0%                                     

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                                     
▷ 韓: 없음.                                     
▷ 中: PPI, 인플레이션율.                                     
▷ 유로존: 실업율.       
▷ 美: 주간신규실업수당청구건수.     

♣ 한국 동향                                     
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,151.31pt   -24.23pt(-1.11%)/ Kosdaq 640.94pt   -22.50pt(-3.39%)                  
                            
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                     
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 61.38pt  +0.04pt (+0.07%)                                     
▷ 야간선물지수 293.50pt  +3.35pt (+1.15%) 환산지수 2,176.15pt                                     

◈ 국내외 Check Point                   
▷ 이란 외무 "美 공격에 대한 비례적조처 완료…확전·전쟁 원치 않아"    
   - 피의 복수 외친 이란, 사실은 미국 피해 최소화 전략...CNN "절제된 공격"   
   - OPEC, 중동 긴장에도 긴급회의 검토하지 않아 
   - 트럼프 "이란 공격, 美 사상자 없어...강력한 경제 제재/ 군사력 사용 원치 않고 평화 끌어 안을 준비
      (이란과 새로운 핵합의 추진 할 수 있을 것)           
▷ 볼턴 "상원 트럼프 탄핵 심판 증언" 선언  
▷  장 중 정보, 해외, 환율 동향 https://t.me/happystock5 (텔레그램 설치 후 클릭)
▷ 1/9 옵션만기, CES 2020(1/7 ~ 10), JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13)                 
▷ 1/11 대만 총통 선거...양안 관계 변화 때 글로벌 불확실성 확대            
▷ 1/15 백악관에서 美中 무역합의 서명…차후 2단계 논의는 베이징, 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한        
   
♣ 금일 투자 전략
 금일 새벽에 트럼프가 기자회견에서 미국 사상자는 없으며 이란에 군사력 사용을 원치 않는다고 발표했죠. 기자회견 말미에 하이퍼소닉 미사일 개발을 이야기하면서 우회적으로 러시아와 중국에 경고를 하기도 했습니다. 어쨌든 이란사태는 마무리가 되는 것 같습니다 다만, 美의 對이란 경제 제재는 불가피해 보입니다. 이로 인해 불안했던 글로벌 증시는 안정을 찾아갈 것으로 보이며 안전자산인 금 값이나 미국채 가격은 하락했고, 변동성 지수나 공포지수는 모두 안정화되는 모습을 보였습니다. 

  금일 시장은 또 다시 강세를 보일 것으로 보입니다 반도체지수나 야간선물지수로 보면 25pt 이상 상승 출발이 예상되며 달러인덱스 상승에도 역외환율을 보면 원화는 절상폭이 큰 상황이라 정규시장에서 1,160원 부근까지 내려가지 않을까 싶습니다. 장 중 흐름은 1월 옵션만기로 변동성은 있겠으나 상승폭을 크게 훼손하지는 않을 것 같습니다

  이 번에도 느낀 것이지만 증시외적 요인은 매도가 아닌 저가매수의 기회였던 것 같습니다.