●[2020/01/13/월요일]이번주부터는 상승 속도를 늦출지도

●[2020/01/13/월요일]이번주부터는 상승 속도를 늦출지도

♣ 글로벌 동향                                     

◈ 美 ; 고용지표 예상 하회로 "하락"            
▷ Dow  -0.46%,    S&P500  -0.29%,    Nasdaq  -0.27%                                     

◈ EU ; 美 고용지표 기대이하에 "하락"                                     
▷ Stoxx 50    -0.17%                                                           

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                       
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.112(전일 1.110)... 전년말 1.121                                       
▷ 달러/엔→ 109.506(전일 109.509)... 전년말 108.615                                       
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.570%p (전일 1.578%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                                       
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.820%p (전일 1.856%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                                       
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,563.20 (전일 $1,554.30)...전년말 $1,519.95                                       
▷ WTI→ $59.12 (전일 $59.56)....전년말 $61.20                                       

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                       
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 91pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 12.56(+0.16%)                                       
▷ Dollar Index 97.075pt(-0.09%), 1월 금리인하 확률 10.0%                                       

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                                       
▷ 韓: 없음.                                       
▷ 中: 총차량판매, 외국인 직접투자.                                       
▷ 유로존: 없음.         
▷ 美: 인플레이션 예상치.       

♣ 한국 동향                                       
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,206.39pt   +19.94pt(+0.91%)/ Kosdaq 673.03pt   +6.94pt(+1.04%)                                            
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                       
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 62.69pt  +0.73pt (+1.18%)                                       
▷ 야간선물지수 297.30pt  -0.35pt (-0.12%) 환산지수 2,203.80pt                                       
◈ 국내외 Check Point                   
▷ 美中무역협상 1단계 합의 서명 공표 불구, 피터 나바로 중국 제재방안 모색   
    - 트럼프 2단계 1/15일 후 곧 시작, 1단계 합의는 15일 넘길 수 도, 결과는 대선 후   
    - 中, 美中무역협상 2단계 불확실성에 대규모 유동성 공급 조기 대응  
▷ 美, 對이란 경제 제재 및 핵협상....상황 장기화 불가피, 글로벌 시장에 부정적 영향은 축소
▷ 美 하원의장 "트럼프 탄핵안 이번주 상원 제출"
▷ JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13)                       
▷ 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한        
   
♣ 금일 투자 전략
지난 주말 "① 美고용 쇼크 (전월 25만6000명→ 14만5000명)"로 고용둔화 우려가 있었고, "② 美中무역협상 1단계 합의 서명이 이번주 예정"이죠. 여기다 대만 총통선거 결과 발표 및 브렉시트 불안감 재부각 등이 있습니다. 이 중 "①"은 추가적 경제지표를 확인하려 할 것이며, "②"는 서명여부에 따라 휴전 지속여부가 결정될 것으로 보입니다. 

어쨌든 부정적 이슈가 있지만 시장의 큰 추세를 바꾸는 영향이라기 보다는 일시적 스크래치 정도고 보고 있습니다. 다만 1차 합의 서명이 근래까지 위험자산 랠리를 이끌어 왔던 만큼 합의서명 시점이 재료 소멸시기라는 점에서 이번주 부터 잠시 쉬어가는 국면도 염두해 둬야 겠습니다.

국내시장 직전 고점으로는 코스피가 2,215pt, 코스닥 679pt로 종가 기준 돌파여부에 따라 추가 랠리를 고려해 볼 수 있습니다. 역으로는 저항으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 즉 추세내에서 등락을 거듭하며 박스권을 만들어 에너지를 응축할 수 있다는 의미죠. 

금일 국내 시장으로 가보죠. 야간선물지수 하락과 달러인덱스 하락에도 역외환율 상승 그리고 반도체 수 하락은 외국인의 수급을 제한 할 가능성이 있습니다. 이에 따라 금일 지수는 3~ 5pt 하락출발이 예상되며 장 중 흐름은 등락을 거듭, 시초가 보다 더 낮게 마무리할 것으로 추정됩니다.