●[2020/01/03/금요일]외국인 선물 매수포지션 과다

●[2020/01/03/금요일]외국인 선물 매수포지션 과다


♣ 글로벌 동향                            

◈ 美 ; 中경기 부양책+ 경제지표 호조에 "상승"   
▷ Dow  +1.16%,    S&P500  +0.84%,    Nasdaq  +1.33%                            

◈ EU ; 中 경기 부양책 여파에 "상승"                            
▷ Stoxx 50    +1.28%                                                  

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                            
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.117(전일 1.121)... 전년말 1.121                            
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.541(전일 108.615)... 전년말 108.615                            
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.567%p (전일 1.571%p)...전년말 1.571% pt                            
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.875%p (전일 1.919%P)...전년말 1.919% pt                            
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,528.10 (전일 $1,519.95)...전년말 $1,519.95                            
▷ WTI→ $61.20 (전일 $61.18)....전년말 $61.20                            

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                            
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 97pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 12.47(-9.51%)                            
▷ Dollar Index 96.488pt(+0.45%), 1월 금리인하 확률 4.40%                            

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                            
▷ 韓: 없음.                            
▷ 中: 없음.                            
▷ 유로존: 대출증가율, M3통화공급량.                            
▷ 美: ISM뉴욕지수, 기업신뢰지수, ISM제조업 고용지수, 건설지출, FOMC 의사록.            

♣ 한국 동향                            
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,175.17pt   -22.50pt(-1.02%)/ Kosdaq 674.02pt   +4.19pt(+0.63%)         
                   
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                            
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 62.17pt  -0.02pt (-0.03%)                            
▷ 야간선물지수 293.20pt +2.450pt (+0.84%) 환산지수 2,193.50pt                            

◈ 국내외 Check Point          
▷ 근래 코스피 약세→ 밸류부담 및 외국인 선물 과매수(누적 52,000계약)에 따른 매물 소화 과정
    - 당분간 중소형주, 개별종목, 코스닥 흐름 이어갈 듯     
    - 1/12 쿼드러플 위칭데이....외국인 청산규모 주목
    - CES 2020(1/7 ~ 10), JP모건 BIO 컨퍼런스(1/13) 이벤트 드리븐, 낙폭과대주 주목 
▷ ABM암로, 달러약세 점진적 장기추세화              
▷ 1/11 대만 총통 선거...양안 관계 변화 때 글로벌 불확실성 확대   
▷ 트럼프 "무역합의 서명식 1/15 백악관…차후 2단계 논의 될 베이징 방문"   
▷ 1/31 영국 브렉시트 최종 시한   

♣ 금일 투자 전략                           
지난 밤 야간선물지수와 반도체 지수의 상승폭이 꽤 컸습니다. 외국인 선물매수 포지션 과다 및 밸류 부담으로 하락했던 코스피는 금일 +15~ 18pt 상승으로 출발 할 것으로 추정됩니다. 밸류부담과 외국인 수급 영향이 부담스럽지만 자산가치 대비 저평가고 추세적 달러약세 가능성 그리고 추가적 기업이익 증가에 대한 기대감이 살아나고 있기 때문입니다.

다만, 중복되는 내용이지만 단기적으로는 외국인 선물 누적잔고 해소 및 모멘텀이나 추가적 기업실적 확인이 가시화되기 전까지는 중소형주, 개별주, 코스닥에 무게가 싣릴 전망입니다. 그런만큼 이런 흐름을 염두해 두고 대응전략을 수립하는 것이 바람직하며 글로벌 시장에서는 뉴욕시장의 상승이 좀 더 이어지되 중국을 비롯한 신흥국증시에 대해서도 관심을 갖고 봐야겠습니다.

달러 약세가 추세적으로 장기화된다면 원자재의 분위기는 더 이어질 가능성이 높겠죠. 그리고 달러 매도나 관련 상품도 주목해 볼 수 있겠습니다. 그러나 이런 흐름 속에서 반드시 세계경기의 흐름이 바뀌는지, 美 연준의 통화정책이 바뀌는지 체크한는 것은 투자의 기본일 것입니다.