◐[2020/ 11/ 23/ 월요일] Fed의 무력감과 美재무부의 깽판

◐[2020/ 11/ 23/  월요일] Fed의 무력감과 美재무부의 깽판

♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)                      
◈ 美 ; 코로나 팬데믹 시즌2 + Fed 부양책 축소 우려에 "하락"                                    
▷ Dow  -0.75%,   S&P500  -0.68%,  Nasdaq -0.42%                  
◈ EU ; 코로나 확산, 사망자 증가등에 경제봉쇄 우려에 "하락"                     
▷ Stoxx 50  -0.87%                 
                                                                                                          
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                     
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.185(전일 1.187)... 전년말 1.121                                 
▷ 달러/엔→ 103.821(전일 103.810)... 전년말 108.615                                     
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.161% pt(전일 0.169% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.824% pt(전일 0.855% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                    
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,869.75 (전일 $1,862.35)...전년말 $1,519.95                   
▷ WTI→ $42.44 (전일 $42.07)....전년말 $61.20                   

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                    
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 62pt (낙관), VIX 23.70(+2.55%)                   
▷ Dollar Index 92.393pt(+0.12%), 12월 금리동결 확률 100%                      
                                                                                   
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                                        
(텔레그램 설치 필요)                                    
                                                                        
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                        
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,55.350pt  +6.08pt(0.24%)/ Kosdaq 870.18pt  +10.24pt (1.19%)                 
                  
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                                 
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  74.67pt  +0.07pt (0.09%)                                                        
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                
                              
◈ 국내외 Check Point                  
▷ 美재무부-Fed 갈등...시장은 바이든행정부 재무부장관이 합의 통해 부활 시킬 것으로 기대
     - 중소기업 대상 메인스트리트 렌딩 프로그램, 회사채 매입 연준 상설기구 폐지 고려       
     - 코로나 관련 긴급대출프로그램 장치 종료....파월 "재무부 요구대로 불용액 반납"결정
▷ 中 AAA 신용등급 디폴트....자본시장 민낮 드러낸 중국 
     - 화천그룹, 칭화유니그룹, 융천석탄전력
▷ 차기 美재무부 장관 후보 자넷 옐런, 라엘 브래이너드
     - 자넷 옐런(전 연준의장), 라엘 브레이너드(현 연준이사)
▷ 민주당 척슈머, 낸시펠로시와 공화당 미치 맥코넬 부양책 협의 재개
     - 대선전 쇼와 달리 실질적 협의로 인식
▷ 코로나 팬데믹 시즌2...통제불능, 사망자 확대
     - 백신은 빨라야 12월 승인 날 듯
▷ 월가 밸류부담 지속
     - S&P500 12월 FWD P/E 21.7배... 5년 평균 17.4배/ 10년 평균 15.6배        
▷ 원/달러 상징적 지지대 1,100원, 매물 지지대 1,098원...이탈시 차기지지대 1,054원              
     - 당국 구두개입에 숨고르기       
▷ 코스피 PBR 1.1 = 2,700pt, 직전고점 2,607pt     


◈ 결론         
지난 주말 이슈는 ① 신종 코로나 확산...경제 봉쇄우려, ② 므누신의 코로나 긴급대출프로그램 장치 종료, ③ 민주당과 공화당의 재정부양책 협상 재개 정도였습니다. 그 외에도 여러가지 이슈가 있었으나 핵심은 세가지정도로 압축해 볼 수 있을 것 같습니다

"①"은 상황이 예사롭지 않습니다. 각 국이 백신만 믿고 너무 쉽게 생각한 것이 아닐까 싶습니다. 백신이 바로 나오는 것도 아니고 나오고 나서 코로나가 금방 소멸되는 것도 아닌데...그 후유증으로 확진자 급증 뿐 아니라 사망자 확대로 경제봉쇄가 현실화 되고 있는 상황이죠. 

"②"는 예상치 못했던 대형 악재지만 므누신의 투심진정 발언과 신정부 출범시 정상화 될 것이라는 시장의 자위가 형성되었지만 백신 출시전까지 "①"과 "②"이 맞물리면서 힘든 시기가 단기적으로 형성될 수 있음은 부담입니다

"③"은 당장 큰 기대는 하기 힘들겁니다. 다만, 정치쇼가 아닌 현실적인 협상이라는 점에서 기대를 할 수 있으나 한편으로는 결과 도출까지 시간이 소요될 수 있어 당장은 한계가 있다고 할 수 있겠습니다

저항대에서 상승이 둔화된 시기, 시장의 기대와 달리, 깊지는 않더라도 스크래치가 나고 있는 상황이고 환율도 하락속도가 더뎌지고 있어 주의가 필요해 보입니다.