●[2020/04/20/ 월요일] 게임체인저가 나타난 것일까?

●[2020/04/20/ 월요일] 기대감을 선반영, 좀 쉬면서
       

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                                

◈ 美 ; 램데시비르 효과 기대에 "상승"               
▷ Dow +2.99%, S&P500 +2.68%, Nasdaq +1.38%                                

◈ EU ; 램데시비르 효과 기대에 "상승"                                    
▷ Stoxx 50 +2.70%                   
                                                                                     
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.087 (전일 1.083)... 전년말 1.121                                    
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.536 (전일 107.816)... 전년말 108.615                                   
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.202% p (전일 0.211% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                      
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.642% p (전일 0.617% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                     
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,694.60 (전일 $1,734.70)...전년말 $1,519.95                   
▷ WTI→ $18.18 (전일 $19.70)....전년말 $61.20                                                               

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                             
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 44pt (패닉), VIX 38.15 (-4.89%)                                  
▷ Dollar Index 99.787pt(+0.71%), 4월 금리인상 확률 12.90%                                  
                                                              
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                   
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)               
                                                   
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                 
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,914.53pt  +57.46pt(3.09%)/ Kosdaq 634.79pt  +11.36pt (1.82%)            
                                                                                                         
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                            
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 50.77pt  +1.82pt (+3.72%)                                   
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                       

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                                
▷ 美, 코로나 경제쇼크 지체 불가...확진자 감소시 봉쇄해제, 경제활동 재개
   - 램데시비르 효과 기대도 한 몫 
   - Fed 위원들 회복은 완만하고 더딜 것
▷ 中, 5월 양회 개최 유력...코로나 소멸 선언 예정
   - 시진핑, 공격적 경기부양 의지 표명  
▷ 마크롱, 5,000억유로 (667兆원) EU구제기금 조성 제안...실패시 유로존 붕괴
   - 독일, 네덜란드, 오스트리아는 반대 
▷ OPEC+ 유가 감산 합의 불구, 공급과잉 지속  
   -  장 중 $18도 붕괴
▷ 보건복지부 장관 "국민연금, 원칙 내에서 주식시장에 적극 투자"  
▷ 램데시비르 소식에 달러약세→ 외국인 연속 31일만에 순매수

◈ 결론          
▷ 지난주 램데시비르 이슈화로 코로나에서 벗어나는 것 아니냐는 기대감 확산과 일부 국가의 봉쇄완화와 경제활동 발표가 시장에 긍정적으로 작용하고 있습니다. 이와 함께 국내 증시에서는 31일만에 외국인 순매수가 있었는데 자금성격이 액티브 즉 단기성일 가능성이 높지만 코로나 대유행 종식이 선언되면 적극적으로 유입될 가능성을 시사했다는 점에서 참고해 볼 필요가 있습니다.

그러나 시장은 바닥에서 상당히 올라와 있고 기업실적 쇼크나 경제상황을 봤을때 현재 지숫대는 낮지는 않습니다. 물론 회복을 전제로 한다면 더 올라야 하겠지만 지금은 조금 이른시기가 아닐까 싶습니다. 그렇다고 다시 시장이 급락으로 간다는 논리는 아닙니다.

코로나가 종식→ 달러약세로 이어지며 정상화 수순을 거치겠지만 유가 공급과잉은 여전히 난제고, 각 국의 봉쇄로 경제정상화도 그렇고 시장이 여기서 레벨업되기는 시간이 필요하다는 의미입니다. 각 국이 코로나 소멸을 선언하며 봉쇄를 풀고 경제활동을 재개 하기까지는 박스권내에서의 등락이 불가피 할 것입니다

레버리지든 인버스든 단타가 아니면 부담스러운 이유이며 주식은 하락시 분할매수가 유효할 것입니다.