●[2020/04/22/ 수요일] 저항대에서 다시 증가하는 부담

●[2020/04/22/ 수요일] 저항대에서 다시 증가하는 부담  
          

♣️ 글로벌 동향    
◈ 美 ; 유가선물 만기 충격에 "하락"                  
▷ Dow -2.67%, S&P500 -3.07%, Nasdaq -3.71%  
◈ EU ; 유가 폭락 쇼크에 "하락"                                       
▷ Stoxx 50 -4.06%                      
                                                                                        
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                   
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.085 (전일 1.086)... 전년말 1.121               
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.773 (전일 107.699)... 전년말 108.615                   
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.205% p (전일 0.206% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt  
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.568% p (전일 0.618% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt  
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,696.95 (전일 $1,712.60)...전년말 $1,519.95 
▷ WTI→ $13.41 (전일 $21.40)....전년말 $61.20 

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스  
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 40pt (패닉), VIX 45.41 (+3.60%) 
▷ Dollar Index 100.330pt(+0.27%), 4월 금리인상 확률 12.90%    
                                                                 
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                      
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)                  
                                                      
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                    
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,879.38pt  -18.98pt(1.00%)/ Kosdaq 628.77pt  -9.05pt (1.42%) 

◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                               
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 48.82pt  -1.45pt (-2.92%)                                      
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단            

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                                   
▷ WTI 멜트다운 차근월물 확산...장 중 43% 급락  
   - 트럼프 "석유가스업체 위한 기금 조성 지시"...셰일가스 기업 연쇄도산 조짐 
   - 산유국 통화 급격한 절하
▷ 美 CLO 부실화 우려...신용등급 강등 임박 
▷ 구리가격도 폭락 중 
▷ 블랙록, "EM 통화 추가 하락" 경고 
▷ 유로존 분절 갈등속 취약국 국채 우려감 확산
▷ 주요국 기업들 달러사재기 지속  
▷ 코스피 외국인 매도 지속....달러인덱스 재차 100pt 대 
▷ 아르헨티나 5월 디폴트 우려 및 멕시코 국제유가 쇼크로 디폴트 조짐 
   - 아르헨티나 국채 보유한 채권자 채무조정 요청 거절 
▷ 코로나 세계 대유행 둔화 확연  
▷ 세계 2Q GDP 예상밖 쇼크 우려도 확산
▷ 김정은 건강 이상 설

◈ 결론             
1차 상승 마무리 후 유동성 vs 경기쇼크로 팽팽한 힘겨루기가 진행되면서 주요국 증시는 박스권이 형성되고 있습니다. 그러나 어느 한쪽으로 기울면 시장은 위든 아래든 쏠림이 나올 가능성이 높습니다. 특히나 바닥에서 단기간내 큰폭 상승이 이루어진 상황에서 기업실적 본격화 및 유가 및 구리가격의 경기침체 확인 그리고 유가급락으로 인한 美셰일가스 업체 파산 위기 및 CLO줄도산 가능성 등은 한 번더 시장에 충격을 줄 수 있는 요인으로 보고 있습니다.

이에 따라 1,900pt 넘는 흐름에서는 물량축소를 고려하며 향후 1,650pt 재매수를 고려 하되 글로벌 상황에 따라 지수 진입폭을 조정해야 할 듯 싶습니다. 물론 이는 과도한 우려감을 반영하고 있어 또 다른 이슈로 바뀔 수 있으나 현재로서는 시장 상황이 수시로 바뀌고 있고 달러인덱스 강세라 보수적 대응을 고려해야 하겠습니다 

금일 시장으로 가보죠. 반도체지수 급락, 역외환율 절하, 6월물 유가선물도 폭락 등을 고려하면 코스피는 약세 출발이 불가피 해 보입니다. 여기다 달러인덱스가 여전히 고공행진을 하고 있고 50일 이평선 저항이 지속되고 있어 장 중 흐름 역시 순탄치는 않을 것으로 보입니다.