●[2020/04/14/ 화요일] 기로에 서서, 투표 먼저 하고

●[2020/04/14/ 화요일] 기로에 서서, 투표 먼저 하고
     

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                              

◈ 美 ; 코로나로 인한 보호무역 및 기업실적 우려에 "혼조"                              
▷ Dow -1.39%, S&P500 -1.01%, Nasdaq +1.14%                              

◈ EU ; 팬데믹 둔화 조짐에 "상승"                                  
▷ Stoxx 50 +1.46%                 
                                                                                   
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)              
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.091 (전일 1.092)... 전년말 1.121                                  
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.756 (전일 108.490)... 전년말 108.615                                 
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.243% p (전일 0.231% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.755% p (전일 0.729% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                   
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,765.60 (전일 $1,733.85)...전년말 $1,519.95                 
▷ WTI→ $22.54 (전일 $23.19)....전년말 $61.20                                                             

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                           
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 37pt (패닉), VIX 41.17 (-1.20%)                                
▷ Dollar Index 99.455pt(-0.05%), 4월 금리인상 확률 10.70%                                
                                                            
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                 
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)             
                                                 
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                               
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,825.76pt  +34.94 pt(1.88%)/ Kosdaq 596.71pt  -14.55pt (2.38%)          
                                                                                                       
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                          
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 48.67pt  -0.27pt (-0.55%)                                 
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                     

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                              
▷ 코로나 대유행 둔화조짐 확대 
   - 글로벌 시장 기로에 서서 코로나 2차 유행과 치료제에 촉각     
▷ 클리리다 Fed 부의장 "바이러스 충격 크지만 디플레이션은 방어 가능"
   - Fed 레포 운영횟수 축소....유동성 투입 속도 조절   
▷ 美싱크탱크, 올해 재정적자, 작년 4배 3조8천억 넘어설 듯
▷ 美국채 미보유 신흥 90개국 금융위기 조짐 "IMF 나서야"...14~ 17일 IMF 총회 주목 
   - 단,  장기화시 IMF 감당하기 어려울 듯
▷ OPEC+ 유가 감산 합의...총 970만 배럴 
   - 과잉공급 3,500만 배럴, 5~ 6월 감산 970만 배럴은 기대 이하 수준
   - 재고 급증 지속

◈ 결론        
▷ 전일 주요 글로벌 이슈 : Fed 유동성 공급 속도 조절 및 기업실적 우려 + 유가 하락 vs 팬데믹 둔화 조짐 속 이번주 美 확진자 정점예상
▷ 글로벌 뉴스, 온갖 어지럽고 불안한 추측성 기사만 난무          
▷ 글로벌 시장은 코로나 둔화세와 신약 추이를 주목하는 한편 섣부른 정상화 시도에 2차 유행 우려로 눈치장세 전개 중. 4월 중순에 접어들며 1Q 기업실적도 주목하는 한편, 2Q 실적과 경제 절벽에 대한 우려도 확산. 그나마 각 국의 유동성에 하방경직성.
    
※ 코스피 요약 : ① 기술적 분석상 1,800~ 1,860pt의 박스권 통과 중으로 실적 및 코로나 재확산 및 신약 이슈에 따라 추가방향 확인할 듯 ② 수급으로는 외국인 매도 지속 및 기관 가세로 부담 지속되고 있는 시기 ③ 역외환율 및 달러인덱스 하락으로 원화 2원 절상 기대 ④ 전일 선방영 측면이 있어 코스피는 보합권 이상에서 등락 예상.