●[2020/04/16/ 목요일] 갈팡질팡, 이정표가 필요한 시기

●[2020/04/16/ 목요일] 갈팡질팡, 이정표가 필요한 시기
     

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                              

◈ 美 ; 코로나발 경제지표 충격 현실화+ 무역전쟁 재개 우려에 "하락"             
▷ Dow -1.86%, S&P500 -2.20%, Nasdaq -1.15%                              

◈ EU ; 코로나발 경제쇼크 현실화에 "급락"                                  
▷ Stoxx 50 -3.75%                 
                                                                                   
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)              
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.091 (전일 1.098)... 전년말 1.121                                  
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.504 (전일 107.053)... 전년말 108.615                                 
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.201% p (전일 0.221% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.630% p (전일 0.749% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                   
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,743.00 (전일 $1,750.90)...전년말 $1,519.95                 
▷ WTI→ $20.25 (전일 $20.11)....전년말 $61.20                                                             

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                           
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 41pt (패닉), VIX 40.84 (+8.16%)                                
▷ Dollar Index 99.590pt(+0.71%), 4월 금리인상 확률 12.90%                                
                                                            
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                 
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)             
                                                 
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                               
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,857.08pt  +31.32 pt(1.72%)/ Kosdaq 610.29pt  +13.58pt (2.28%)          
                                                                                                       
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                          
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 48.34pt  -1.52pt (-3.05%)                                 
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                     

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                              
▷ 전세계 코로나 확산 둔화 조짐...지난주 뉴욕사망자 급증은 통계수정 영향 
   - 글로벌 상황 주후반 고비, "2차 유행 우려와 변종 및 치료제 촉각"    
   - 코로나 돌연변이는 변수 
▷ 트럼프, WHO 지원 중단은 극우파의 중국 때리기
   - 美中 무역전쟁 재개 조짐 
▷ 中, 5월 양회 개최 유력...코로나 소멸 선언 예정 
▷ 글로벌 경제 공황 vs 각 국의 적극적 통화 및 재정정책 효과
   - 베이지북,  코로나로 경제활동 급격한 경색 
▷ IMF, 세계경제 손실, 獨+日 경제규모...신흥국 퍼펙트스톰 우려
   - 25개 최빈국 채무 상환 6개월간 유예....6,000억원 지원
▷ OPEC+ 유가 감산 합의 불구, 공급과잉 지속→ 시간외에서 $20 붕괴 

◈ 결론        
▷ 코로나 대유행 둔화속 제2 유행 우려, 달러인덱스 99~ 100pt 박스권 지속, 세계경기에 대한 충격 및 우려 지속, Fed 디플레이션 부인, 2Q 기업실적 절벽 우려, 일부 신흥국 디폴트 우려 등 이 현재 글로벌 중요 이슈.

▷ 시장 대바닥 놓고 개인투자자 자금 투입 후 대기 혹은 인버스 집중하고 있으나 글로벌 경제가 어려운 것은 사실이나 Fed 등 각 국 중앙은행과 정부가 방어 중으로 특별한 이슈가 불거지지 않는다면 급락 보다는 완만한 박스권 상승 예상

▷ 시장 1차 바닥 확인된 상태에서 더블딥(쌍바닥)으로 가기 위해서는 코로나 2차 대유행 혹은 일부 신흥국 디폴트 선언해야 가능. 그렇다면 인버스나 레버리지는 단타가 아니라면 매우 위험한 시기. 

▷ 역외환율 급등+ 반도체지수 상승+ 미중무역전쟁 재개 조짐+ 글로벌경제, 코로나로 인한 경제쇼크 현실화 등의 소식으로 금일 하락출발이 예상됩니다. 달러인덱스 강세 재개도 외국인의 매도 지속을 예고 하고 있어 장 중 흐름 역시 반등은 어려울 것으로 보입니다.