●[2020/04/17/ 금요일] 경제쇼크 가시화 vs 유동성 방어

●[2020/04/17/ 금요일] 경제활동 재개를 위한 잰걸음
      

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                               

◈ 美 ; 대량 실업자수 발생에도 경제활동 재개 기대감에 "상승"              
▷ Dow +0.14%, S&P500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +1.93%                               

◈ EU ; 경제활동 재개 기대감에 "상승"                                   
▷ Stoxx 50 +0.15%                  
                                                                                    
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)               
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.083 (전일 1.091)... 전년말 1.121                                   
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.816 (전일 107.504)... 전년말 108.615                                  
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.211% p (전일 0.201% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                     
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.617% p (전일 0.630% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                    
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,734.70 (전일 $1,743.00)...전년말 $1,519.95                  
▷ WTI→ $19.70 (전일 $20.25)....전년말 $61.20                                                              

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                            
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 42pt (패닉), VIX 40.11 (-1.79%)                                 
▷ Dollar Index 100.192pt(+0.71%), 4월 금리인상 확률 10.70%                                 
                                                             
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                  
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)              
                                                  
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                                
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,857.07pt  -0.01pt(0.00%)/ Kosdaq 623.43pt  +13.14pt (2.15%)           
                                                                                                        
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                           
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 48.95pt  +0.61pt (+1.26%)                                  
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                      

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                               
▷ 美 경제쇼크 가시화....일자리 창출 2,000만개 이후 코로나로 소실 2,200만개
   - 지난주 실업자수 524만명 급증
   - 기업실적도 쇼크
   - 경제활동 정상화 서두르는 트럼프...오후 6시 경제재개 지침 예고 발표
▷ IMF 의 각 국 GDP 전망 중 韓은 글로벌 평균 대비 상대적 양호 
   - 韓 -1.3%...2019년 4분기 +2.3% 
▷ 中, 5월 양회 개최 유력...코로나 소멸 선언 예정  
▷ S&P, 멕시코 정부/ 국영 석유회사 페멕스 부채 더 확대시 국가등급 추가 강등
▷ OPEC+ 유가 감산 합의 불구, 공급과잉 지속 
   -  Fed 카플란 "원유 과잉공급 해소에 수개월 소요"

◈ 결론         
▷ 지난 밤 나스닥지수와  필라델피아 반도체 지수 강세 원인은 삼성에 이어 TSMC도 공격적 투자를 발표하면서 美 반도체주들이 강세를 보였기 때문. 이와 함께 美을 비롯해 일부 국가들이 경제활동을 위한 준비를 서두르면서 기대감도 시장에 긍정적 작용. 그러나 주간 실업률 524만건 등 경제충격이 가시화 되고 있는 부분과 코로나 2차 확산 우려는 상승을 제한하는 요인.

韓이 코로나발 경제쇼크가 다른 국가들 보다 제한적이어서 특별한 이슈가 추가로 불거지지 않는다면 증시 변동폭은 그나마 줄어들 것으로 추정. 다만, 달러인덱스가 다시 상승하고 있고 트럼프의 경제활동 재개 추진에도 소비가 살아나지 않는다면 기업들은 여전히 달러자금난에 시달려야 하고 일부 신흥국의 디폴트 우려는 커질 수 있어 시장 상승을 기대하기는 이른 싯점

▷ 경제활동 재개 기대감+ 반도체 지수 급등으로 코스피는 상승 출발이 예상되나 역외환율과 경제충격 현실화로 장 중 흐름은 재차 반락하는 흐름을 보이는 전강후약의 약세가 예상됨