●[2020/04/13/ 월요일] 불안속에 만개한 봄

●[2020/04/13/ 월요일] 불안속에 만개한 봄  
    

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                             

◈ 美 ; 성금요일로 "휴장"                             
▷ Dow +0.00%, S&P500 +0.00%, Nasdaq +0.00%                             

◈ EU ; 성금요일로 "휴장"                                 
▷ Stoxx 50 +0.00%                
                                                                                  
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)             
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.092 (전일 1.092)... 전년말 1.121                                 
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.490 (전일 108.490)... 전년말 108.615                                
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.231% p (전일 0.231% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                   
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.729% p (전일 0.729% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                  
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,733.85 (전일 $1,733.85)...전년말 $1,519.95                
▷ WTI→ $23.19 (전일 $23.19)....전년말 $61.20                                                            

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                          
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 43pt (패닉), VIX 41.67 (-0.00%)                               
▷ Dollar Index 99.530pt(-0.64%), 4월 금리인상 확률 12.90%                               
                                                           
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)            
                                                
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                              
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,860.70pt  +24.49 pt(1.33%)/ Kosdaq 611.26pt  -4.69pt (0.76%)         
                                                                                                      
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                         
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 51.31pt  -0.00pt (-0.00%)                                
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                    

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                             
▷ 코로나 대유행 둔화조짐 확대
   - 경제충격 놓고 Fed의장 V 자형 회복 vs IMF총재 대공황 이후 최악    
▷ Fed, 주식 매입 빼고 모든 부양책 동원  
▷ G20 경기부양책 총 동원
▷ OPEC+ 유가 감산 합의...美 불참
    - 미국 4억 배럴등 원유재고 + 글로벌 소비 부진은 부담
    - 과잉공급 3,500만 배럴...감산 1,000만 배럴
▷ KOSPI P/E = 9.92배, P/B = 0.73   

◈ 결론       
▷ 전일 주요 글로벌 이슈 : 글로벌 대유행 둔화조짐 확대 vs 세계경제 절벽 우려
▷ 유동성 랠리 진행 중...매물 소화과정이 필요한 시기 진입           
▷ 달러자금 시장 경색도 점진적 진정 조짐   
※ 요약 : ① 금일 시장 보합권 중심 소폭등락 예상.② 원화 보합권 예상 ③ 외국인 매도세 둔화 중, 이번주 변화 추이 주목, ④ 코스피 1,930pt 50일 이평 저항대까지 1차 진입 예상

※ 코로나 대유행 둔화 조짐에 글로벌 시장 랠리 중.
    ① 증시 2,000pt 넘기 위해서는 코로나 대유행 둔화 본격화, 글로벌 경제지표 예상수준 이상, 기업실적 예상수준, 소비회복 조짐 나와야 할 것
    ② 계절적 "기온상승+ 습도 상승"기로 접어 들고 있어 코로나 보다 글로벌 경제와 기업실적 등 촛점이 맞춰 지는 시. 또한 하이일드 스프레드가 빠르게 하락 중으로 8%대를 보이고 있는데 이 것이 5%대로 내려오면 Fed Tapering 시작할 것으로 추정

즉, 美내 소비 본격화 조짐+ 하이일드 스프레드 5% 대 미만 = Fed Tapering 진행 시기로 추정. 아직은 시간이 필요한 이야기.