●[2020/04/10/ 금요일] Fed! 화끈하게 쏜다

●[2020/04/10/ 금요일] Fed! 화끈하게 쏜다 
   

♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                            

◈ 美 ; Fed 추가부양책 발표에 "상승"                            
▷ Dow +1.22%, S&P500 +1.45%, Nasdaq +0.11%                            

◈ EU ; 코로나 정점기대+ Fed  추가부양책에 "상승"                                
▷ Stoxx 50 +1.46%               
                                                                                 
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)            
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.092 (전일 1.085)... 전년말 1.121                                
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.490 (전일 108.872)... 전년말 108.615                               
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.231% p (전일 0.258% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                  
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.729% p (전일 0.774% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                 
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,733.85 (전일 $1,679.90)...전년말 $1,519.95               
▷ WTI→ $23.19 (전일 $26.25)....전년말 $61.20                                                           

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                         
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 42pt (패닉), VIX 41.67 (-3.88%)                              
▷ Dollar Index 99.573pt(-0.60%), 4월 금리인상 확률 13.90%                              
                                                          
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보               
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)           
                                               
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                             
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,836.21pt  +29.07 pt(1.61%)/ Kosdaq 615.95pt  +8.58pt (1.41%)         
                                                                                                     
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                        
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 51.31pt  -0.14pt (-0.29%)                               
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단                   

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                            
▷ IMF 총재, 대공황 이래 "코로나로 인한 최악의 경제 여파" 불가피    
▷ Fed, 2.3조 달러 부양책 발표...기업 및 지방정부 등 지원 방안 공개 
    - 정크본드와 대출담보부증권(CLO)및 상업용 모기지채권까지 매입 
    - 사실상 주식 외에 모두 매입하는 셈 
    - 파월, 코로나 이후 급격한 경기회복 
    - 美 고용쇼크로 인한 소득 악순환
▷ 신흥국發 글로벌 외환위기 우려 확산   
    - IMF, 달러화 공급확대 위해 연준 같은 프로그램 검토...80개국 지원요청            
▷  트럼프 "美 이미 감산"...OPCT+ 감산 합의 안되면 보복 
    - 감산 원칙적 합의...10개 산유국, 감산규모 一日 2,000만 배럴 
    - 사우디와 러시아 감산 규모는 기대 미흡

◈ 결론      
▷ 전일 주요 글로벌 이슈 : Fed, 2.3조달러 공급소식 vs  감산 기대 부합하지 못한 사우디와 러시아     
▷ 유동성 랠리 지속.      
    - Fed 발표에 달러인덱스 100pt 붕괴...추세적 하락여부로 이어질지 주목    
▷ 각 국의 유동성 공급에 랠리 중이나 달러자금 시장 경색은 여전...완화되야 추가랠리  
※ 요약 : ① 반도체 지수 하락+ 유가 급락 vs Fed 추가부양책 + 역외환율 절상 및 달러인덱스 하락 = 상승출발 예상.② 원화 8원 절상 예상 ③ 달러 약세 이틀째 및 투심 완화로 외국인 매매 변화 주목(순매도 규모 축소 규모)