●[2020/03/10/화요일] 코로나19+ 유가급락= 공황?

●[2020/03/10/화요일] 코로나19+ 유가급락= 공황?

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                              

◈ 美 ; 코로나19 팬데믹+ 유가 급락에 "폭락"                                                      
▷ (종가 직전 수치)Dow -7.79%, S&P500 -7.60%, Nasdaq -6.83%                                                                

◈ EU ; 코로나19 팬데믹+ 유가 급락에 "폭락"                                                               
▷ Stoxx 50 -8.26%                                                              

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                              
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.145 (전일 1.130)... 전년말 1.121                                                           
▷ 달러/엔→ 102.301 (전일 105.497)... 전년말 108.615                                                              
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.399% p (전일 0.510% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                                                             
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.559% p (전일 0.773% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                                                            
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,676.45 (전일 $1,674.35)...전년말 $1,519.95                                                          
▷ WTI→ $30.95 (전일 $41.61)....전년말 $61.20                                                              

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                              
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 3pt (패닉), VIX 54.46 (+29.85%)                                                              
▷ Dollar Index 94.965pt(-0.99%), 3월 금리인하 확률 100.0%                                                              
                            
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                                      

♣ 한국 동향                                                               
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,954.77 pt  -85.45 pt(-4.19%)/ Kosdaq 614.60 pt  -28.12pt(-4.38%)                                                                       
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                              
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 52.48pt  -3.06pt (-5.51%)                                                              
▷ 야간선물지수 259.05pt  -3.30pt (-1.26%) 환산지수 1,930.18 pt                                                              

◈ 국내외 Check Point          
▷ 코로나19, 글로벌 팬데믹 단계 본격화  
    - 아시아 진정 속 유럽과 아메리카, 중동으로 확산   
▷ 국제유가 폭락...디플레이션 본격화 
    - 러시아와 주도권을 놓고 사우디아라비아 유가 인하 및 생산확대 
    - 유가 급락으로 인한 원유 및 셰일오일, 조선, 건설등 글로벌 업종 충격                     
▷ 3/12 쿼드러플 위칭데이...글로벌 분위기 편승한 대규모 공매도도 한 몫  

♣ 금일 투자 전략    
    美中무역전쟁→ 코로나19 팬데믹에서 유가폭락 등에 따른 글로벌 디플레이션 공포는 위험자산에서 안전자산으로 빠르게 넘어가고 있습니다. 특히 글로벌 시장 패닉은 경험해보지 못한 상황으로 치닫고 있는 상황. 코스피의 경우도 예외는 아니어서 갭하락으로 2019년 8월 저점인 1,891pt에 근접 할 기세입니다. 외국인은 3월들어 매도세가 진정되는 듯 했지만 코로나19관련 美 상황이 악화되자 재차 매도 확대와 함께 유가 급락과 맞물려 투매로 번진 상황입니다. 

    시장은 코로나19로 인한 글로벌 경기침체우려에서 유가급락이 더해진 공황 우려로 번지고 있는 상태. 결론은 아무도 알 수 없는 상황. 다만, 유가급락이 美 금리인하에 힘을 싣어 줄 수 있으나 한편으로는 셰일오일을 비롯한 오일기업과 더 나가서는 다른 산업과 고용에 부정적이라는 점에서 트럼프가 이를 손놓고 있지는 않을 것 같습니다.

   아직은 코로나19 팬데믹이 본격화 중이고 사우디와 러시아의 유가 결정력을 위한 전쟁의 시작이니 시간이 필요할겁니다. 더 하락 할 수도 있을 겁니다. 그러나 역사적으로 그랬듯이 지금 구간에서는 동요보다는 긴호흡의 대응이 바람직 할 것입니다

   금일 시장입니다. 글로벌 패닉장세. 그나마 전일 선방영이 있어 금일 미반영분 반영된다면 대략 24pt 하락 출발이 예상됩니다. 그나마 역외환율은 가파른 달러인덱스 하락에 선방했지만 현재 분위기는 던지고 보자는 심리가 팽배해 쉽지 않은 하루가 될 것 같습니다. 특히, 신용/ 대출 담보부족 상황으로 치닫고 있어 현금보유가 아니면 주의가 필요해 보입니다.