●[2020/03/12/목요일] 군중심리 그리고 만기일

●[2020/03/12/목요일] 변동성 그리고 만기일  

♣ 글로벌 동향                                                                 

◈ 美 ; WHO 글로벌 팬데믹 선언 및 美재정정책 불확실성에 "급락"                                
▷ Dow -5.86%, S&P500 -4.89%, Nasdaq -4.37% 

◈ EU ; WHO 글로벌 팬데믹 선언에 "하락"                                                                  
▷ Stoxx 50 -0.15%                                                                 

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                                                               
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.127 (전일 1.128)... 전년말 1.121   
▷ 달러/엔→ 104.587 (전일 105.544)... 전년말 108.615  
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.529% p (전일 0.546% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt  
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.874% p (전일 0.808% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt   
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,636.60 (전일 $1,649.55)...전년말 $1,519.95 
▷ WTI→ $33.02 (전일 $34.54)....전년말 $61.20    

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                 
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 4pt (패닉), VIX 53.90 (+13.95%)   
▷ Dollar Index 96.525pt(+0.14%), 3월 금리인하 확률 100.0%   
                               
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                                                         

♣ 한국 동향                                                                  
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,908.27 pt  -54.66 pt(-2.78%)/ Kosdaq 595.61pt  -24.36pt(-3.93%)                                                                          
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                                 
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 52.04pt  -2.68pt (-4.90%)    
▷ 야간선물지수 254.60pt  -2.30pt (-0.90%) 환산지수 1,891.19 pt    

◈ 국내외 Check Point             
▷ WHO, 코로나19 글로벌 팬데믹 선언...트럼프 코로나19 대응 예고     
    - 아시아 진정 속 유럽과 아메리카, 중동으로 확산      
▷ 트럼프, 경제대책 불참...코로나 감염 우려, 투심 부담으로 작용   
    - 트럼프발 급여세 감면 카드..與도 野도 '난색'  
▷ 각 국 마다 코로나19 재정·통화정책 ‘총동원’...BOE, 0.50%pt 긴급 금리인하  
    - 美, 中, 韓에 이어 이탈리아(10조), 독일(17조)도 가세, 日도 예정  
▷ UAE, 산유량 증산 선언...사우디에 이어 "유가전쟁" 합류  
    - 美셰일발 디폴트 공포(131조원)..금융권 리스크 우려
    - 사우디, 러시아와 "감산 물밑 협상 보도" 부인
▷ 3/12 쿼드러플 위칭데이    
    - 韓 공매도 과열종목 2주간 공매도 금지   
▷ 코스피 PBR 0.8배 붕괴....0.77배 기록  
    - 외국인 투매 지속

♣ 금일 투자 전략       
 하루가 멀다하고 세계증시가 변동성을 확대하며 롤러코스터를 타고 있습니다. 지난 밤 야간선물지수와 반도체지수는 급락했고 역외환율 절하폭을 감안하면 금일 코스피는 1,900pt 미만에서 출발이 예상됩니다  
   
 지난 밤 코로나 팬데믹을 WHO가 인정한 가운데 유가전쟁은 본격화되고 있고, 트럼프발 美부양책은 여야의 난색에 공염불로 끝날 것으로 보입니다. 이에 따라 패닉 심리가 살아나면서 국내증시도 변동성이 클 것으로 보입니다.

  특히, 만기일에 따른 부담도 가세할 것으로 보여 지난 8월 저점인 1,891pt를 테스트 할 가능성도 높아 보입니다 그러나 이미 PBR은 0.77 배까지 하락한 상태로 금일 추가하락에서는 저가매수세 유입이 이어지며 1,900pt 회복을 시도할 가능성이 있어 보입니다. 이미 말씀드린대로 "패닉"에 따른 공포감에 연동된 장세라 변동성이 크고 안정되는데 시간이 필요하지만 코로나가 진정되면 글로벌 유동성 장세로 이어질 수 있음도 열어둬야 할 것입니다