●[2020/04/27/ 월요일] 또 다시 저항으로

●[2020/04/27/ 월요일] 또 다시 저항으로
            

♣️ 글로벌 동향      
◈ 美 ; 부양패키지 트럼프 서명+ 국제유가 상승에 "반등"                    
▷ Dow  +1.11%,    S&P500  +1.39%,    Nasdaq  +1.65%    
◈ EU ; 치료제 난항+ EU 분할에 "하락"                                         
▷ Stoxx 50  -1.52%                        
                                                                                          
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                     
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.082 (전일 1.076)... 전년말 1.121                 
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.469 (전일 107.635)... 전년말 108.615                     
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.223% p (전일 0.219% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.606% p (전일 0.597% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt    
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,745.65 (전일 $1,750.40)...전년말 $1,519.95   
▷ WTI→ $17.19 (전일 $17.05)....전년말 $61.20   

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스    
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 39pt (패닉), VIX 35.93 (-13.17%)   
▷ Dollar Index 100.265pt(-0.27%), 4월 금리인상 확률 11.80%      
                                                                   
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보                        
(텔레그램 Data 공유 공간)                    
                                                        
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                        
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,889.01pt  -25.72pt(1.34%)/ Kosdaq 632.96pt  -10.83pt (1.68%) 
  
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                 
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 49.82pt  +0.12pt (+0.06%)                                        
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단
              
◈ 국내외 Check Point                                                     
▷ 램데시비르, 코로나 공식 임상결과 5월말 공식발표 예정
▷ 美셰일기업 아사직전, 해상 유정들 가동 중단
  - OPEC 5/10 회동…사우디, 러시아는 불참○1
▷ 트럼프, 5천억달러 규모 “코로나”부양책 서명
▷ Fed, 2023년까지 제로금리…대차대조표 10조달러로 확대 전망
  - Fed, 국채매입 규모 5주 연속 축소…다음주 국채매입 하루 100억달러로 축소 결정
▷ 김정은 관련 루머 확산 속 中, 김정은 도울 의료전문가 北파견 발표
  - 건강에 문제는 있는 듯
▷ 코스피 1,439pt  1,926pt = 487pt 
  - 되돌림 38.2% - 1,740pt, 50%-1,683pt, 61.8%-1,626pt 

◈ 결론               
지난 주말 ① 트럼프의 코로나 부양패키지 서명, ② 김정은 관련 루머 확산, ③ 유가 사흘째 상승 정도가 있었죠.  여기에 굳이 하나 더 추가한다면 ④ 램데시비르 임상 논란입니다. 

이 중 “①”이 글로벌 시장의 상승 요인이었으나 반응은 그렇게 크지 않았습니다. 아무래도 코로나로 인한 경제쇼크와 관련 각 국의 정부 정책과 통화정책이 지속되고 있다보니 반응이 전 같지 않을 겁니다. 그러나 시장을 받치는 재료는 부인할 수 없겠죠. 

“②”는 아니 땐 굴뚝에 연기 나랴?는 속담이 있듯이 中에서 의사를 北에 보냈다는 것을 보면 문제가 있는 것 같습니다. 중병이거나 사망이면 한반도 긴장감을 조성할 수 있으며 저가매수의 기회가 될 것입니다. ”③”은 모멘텀이 없다면 현재 가격 전후의 등락이 예상됩니다.  “④”는 빠르면 5월 중순 늦으면 5월말 공식발표 한다고하니 기다려 봐야 할 듯 싶습니다.

국내 시장으로 가보죠. 반도체지수 상승과 원화강세, 달러인덱스 하락 등을 고려하면 반등이 가능하지만 기대 할 만한 모멘텀이 없어 큰 반등을 기대하기는 어렵습니다. 여기다 김정은 관련 내용이 어떻게 불거질지도 시장의 이목이 집중되는 요인이라 운신폭도 제한될 것으로 보입니다