●[19/12/24/화요일]Merry Christmas!!!

●[19/12/24/화요일]Merry Christmas!!! 

♣ 글로벌 동향                        

◈ 美 ; 美경제지표 부진에도 불구 中의 관세인하 발표로 "상승"                       
▷ Dow  +0.34%,    S&P500  +0.09%,    Nasdaq  +0.23%                        

◈ EU ; 中관세인하 불구, 은행주 약세에 "혼조"                        
▷ Stoxx 50    +0.10%                                              

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                        
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.108(전일 1.107)... 전년말 1.146                        
▷ 달러/엔→ 109.383(전일 109.475)... 전년말 109.64                        
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.650%p (전일 1.632%p)...전년말 2.496% pt                        
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.928%p (전일 1.919%P)...전년말 2.686% pt                        
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,489.60 (전일 $1,482.05)...전년말 $1,281.30                        
▷ WTI→ $60.63 (전일 $60.37)....전년말 $45.41                        

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                        
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 92pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 12.61(+0.80%)                        
▷ Dollar Index 97.260pt(-0.01%), 1월 금리인하 확률 4.40%                        

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                        
▷ 韓: 없음.                        
▷ 中: 없음.                        
▷ 유로존: 없음.                        
▷ 美: 레드북, 리치몬드 연준 제조업지수.              

♣ 한국 동향                        
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,203.71pt   -0.47pt(0.02%)/ Kosdaq 647.62pt   -2.11pt(-0.32%)               
               
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                        
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 61.68pt -0.24pt (-0.39%)                        
▷ 야간선물지수 292.45pt +0.45pt (+0.15%) 환산지수 2,207.11pt                        

◈ 국내외 Check Point                        
▷ 신화통신 "내년 1/1 부로 일부 수입관세 인하 결정"...859개 품목 
    - 2020. 7. 1 부터 170여개 IT제품에 대해 단계별(5차례) 수익 관세율 인하      
▷ 2020/1/11 대만총통 선거...대만 독립파 차이잉원 대통령의 재선 예상 
    - 中이 홍코 인권법과 신장 위그루 문제에서 외교와 통상 분리 대응 중 
    - 대만 이슈는 임팩트가 클 듯, 美 스탠스 지켜 봐야할 이슈                  
▷ 韓정부, 2020년 100조 투자...공공60조, 민간25조, 민자15조 
▷ 26일까지 매수해야 배당 가능(대주주양도세 과세 회피 마지막일)
    - 27일 배당락일, 30일 납회일   

♣ 금일 투자 전략                       
야간선물지수와 반도체지수의 상승이 있었죠. 금일 코스피는 3~ 4pt 상승으로 출발이 예상됩니다. 달러인덱스 약보합으로 외국인 수급 역시 부정적이지 않을 것으로 보여 상승채널 상단부내에서 등락을 이어갈 것으로 추정됩니다.  

中이 전일 수입관세 인하 결정을 발표하면서 글로벌 시장이 반응했죠. 美中무역협상 1단계 합의에 대한 불안을 해소시킨 셈입니다. 여기다 브렉시트 불확실성도까지 축소되면서 이슈에 대한 부담이 잦아들고 있고 글로벌 자금도 신흥국으로 확산 조짐을 보이고 있습니다. 국내 시장도 상승채널 상단부에서 저항을 보이고 있지만 주 후반에는 숏커버링과 윈도우드레싱으로 돌파가 예상 됩니다.

수일남지 않은 올 해는 대략 현재 수준에서 크게 벗어나지 못하겠지만 무자년에는 긍정적 이슈들이 많은 만큼 시장의 추가적 상승을 기대해 봐도 될 것 같습니다.