●[19/12/20/금요일]가파라지는 환율

●[19/12/20/금요일]가파라지는 환율


♣ 글로벌 동향                    

◈ 美 ; 므누신, 1월초 美中무역합의 서명 발표에 "상승"                   
▷ Dow  +0.49%,    S&P500  +0.45%,    Nasdaq  +0.67%                    

◈ EU ; 노딜브렉시트 vs 美 트럼프 하원 탄핵에 "혼조"                    
▷ Stoxx 50    +0.17%                    

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                    
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.112(전일 1.111)... 전년말 1.146                    
▷ 달러/엔→ 109.319(전일 109.589)... 전년말 109.64                    
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.628%p (전일 1.630%p)...전년말 2.496% pt                    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.919%p (전일 1.923%P)...전년말 2.686% pt                    
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,484.40(전일 $1,478.70)...전년말 $1,281.30                    
▷ WTI→ $61.18 (전일 $60.93)....전년말 $45.41                    

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                    
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 90pt (탐욕 최고조), VIX 12.50(-0.64%)                    
▷ Dollar Index 96.993pt(+0.03%), 1월 금리인하 확률 2.20%                    

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                    
▷ 韓: PPI.                    
▷ 中: 없음.                    
▷ 유로존: 경상수지.                    
▷ 美: GDP 성장률, PCE 물가지수, 핵심PCE 물가지수, 개인소득, 기업이익, 개인지출, 미시건대 소비심리지수, 소비자신뢰지수.          

♣ 한국 동향                    
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,196.56pt   +1.80pt(+0.08%)/ Kosdaq 647.85pt   -1.10pt(-0.17%)            
           
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                    
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 61.53pt +0.17pt (+0.28%)                    
▷ 야간선물지수 292.55pt +0.95pt (+0.33%) 환산지수 2,203.72pt                    

◈ 국내외 Check Point                    
▷ 므누신, 美中 무역 1단계 합의 1월초 서명 예정
    - 피치 "1단계 합의로 중국 내년 성장 6%로 상향 조정"   
▷ Fed QE4→ 글로벌 시장 유동성 확대          
▷ 韓정부, 2020년 100조 투자...공공60조, 민간25조, 민자15조  
    - 신사업 상생혁신기금 마련 
▷ 도이치방크 "원화.대만달러 등 2020년 글로벌자금 유입에 가장 높은 절상"  
▷ 외국계 증권사들 "2020년 韓證市 비중확대" 러시    
    - 韓 EPS 증가율 +22% 
    - 반도체 주도 (최근 외국인 반도체주 집중 이유) 
▷ 원달러 환율 헤더앤숄더... 1,160원에서 소폭 되돌림 후 재차 하락 예상 
    - 1차 1,150원 지지대  

♣ 금일 투자 전략                   
    지난 밤 새로운 글로벌 이슈는 없었습니다. 뉴욕증시의 경우 "트럼프 탄핵" 관련 "1월 중 상원에서 무산"될 가능성에 신경쓰지 않았고, "일부 기업의 호재"와 "1월초 美中무역합의 서명이라는 므누신 美재무장관의 발언" 에 반응하는 모습이었습니다. 

    국내 시장의 경우는 코스피가 야간선물지수와 반도체지수 흐름을 등에 업고 모처럼 2,020pt 돌파로 출발 할 것 같습니다. 아직 이격이 부담스럽기는 하지만 호재가 급격히 증가하는 상황이고 반도체업종에 대한 해외 IB들의 견해도 급격히 돌아서고 있어 2,020pt 안착이 이루어지지 않을까 싶습니다.

    여기다 원달러 환율이 최근 가파른 하락으로 소폭 반등의 되돌림을 줄 수 있으나 내주부터 다시 하락세를 이어갈 가능성이 높고 글로벌 자금 유입외 부동산 규제에 따른 자금과 내년 정부의 100조 투자, 그리고 총선 등이 내정되어 있어 현재 지숫대에서 10% 정도의 상승여력이 충분하지 않을까 싶습니다.