● [19/12/04/수요일] 산산조각난 무역협상

● [19/12/04/수요일] 산산조각난 무역협상

♣️ 글로벌 동향                         

◈ 美 ; 무역협상을 대선 후로 미룰 수 있다는 트럼프 발언에 "하락"                      
     ▷ Dow  -1.01%,   S&P500 -0.66%,  Nasdaq  -0.55%                         
◈ EU ; 美中 무역합의 연내 불발 가능성에 "하락"                         
     ▷ Stoxx 50  -0.43%                         

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                         
     ▷ 유로/달러→ 1.108(전일 1.107)... 전년말 1.146                         
     ▷ 달러/엔→ 108.632(전일 108.980)... 전년말 109.64                         
     ▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.536% p (전일 1.602%p)...전년말 2.496% pt                         
     ▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.712% p (전일 1.820%P)...전년말 2.686% pt                         
     ▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,484.40 (전일 $1,469.20)...전년말 $1,281.30                         
     ▷ WTI→ $56.10 (전일 $55.96)....전년말 $45.41                         

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                         
     ▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 64pt (탐욕), VIX 15.96(+7.04%)                         
     ▷ Dollar Index 97.678pt(-0.12%), 12월 1.25 - 1.50%로 금리인하 확률 4.40%                      
◈ 주요국 경제 일정                         
     ▷ 韓: 외환보유고.                         
     ▷ 中: Caixin서비스PMI, 복합 구매관리자지수.                         
     ▷ 유로존: 유로그룹회의, Markit서비스PMI, Markit종합PMI.                         
     ▷ 美: 모기지신청건수, ADP고용변화, Markit서비스PMI, Markit종합PMI, ISM비제조업PMI.                 
♣️ 한국 동향                         
    ▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,084.07pt   -7.85pt(-0.38%)/  Kosdaq 629.58pt   -4.92pt(-0.78%)    
    
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                         
    ▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  57.43pt  -0.67pt (-1.15%)                         
    ▷ 야간선물지수  273.95pt  -2.30pt (-0.83%)  환산지수 2,066.72pt                         

◈ 국내외 Check Point                            
   ▷ 美中 무역협상 정면충돌....트럼프 中 무역합의 대선이후 언급  
       - 中 "美 모든 관세 철폐해야 무역합의"↔ "美, 12/15 까지 中 변화없으면 관세부과"  
   ▷ 中 "홍콩인권법안 대응" 관련 美기업 블랙리스트 발표 예정  
   ▷ 美, 브라질/ 아르헨티나 겨냥...철강, 알루미늄 관세 부과 재개  
   ▷ 美USTR "오스트리아, 이탈리아, 터키 디지털세에도 301조 적용 고려 중"  
       - 프랑스 구글세에 와인세로 맞불…2조8000억원 규모 보복관세  
   ▷ S&P “올해 韓경제 바닥, 내년 2.1%로 더딘 회복…핵심 리스크는 디플레”    
       - FT, 韓경제 50년 만에 최악...초유의 3년 연속 2%대 성장  
       - 기준금리는 2회 연속 인하로 1% 이하 추정  
   ▷ 北美 이상기류....트럼프 무력사용 가능성까지 시사
   ▷ 韓증시에서 외국인 19일 연속 순매도....4조 5,912억원    
   ▷ 12일 쿼드러플 위칭데이            
                                           
♣️ 금일 투자 전략     
    그동안 어떻게 참았는지 트럼프가 작심한 듯 강경발언들을 쏟아냈습니다. 中, 유럽, 남미까지 관세 전면전을 재점화 시켰고, 北에 대해서는 필요시 무력 사용할 수 도 있다고도 했습니다. 월가에서는 15일 추가 관세 시행시 금융시장 패닉이 이어질 수 있고 관세전쟁 확대로 글로벌 경기침체 가능성에 대한 우려까지 이어졌습니다. 하루만에 분위기가 크게 바뀐 상황입니다. 그러나 전일 시황에서도 언급드렸듯이 15일까지는 흐름을 지켜봐야 하는 상황입니다. 트럼프 발언이 분명 부담이기는 하지만 아직 가시화 된 것은 없기 때문입니다.

    전일 지지권에서 낙폭 축소를 시도했던 코스피는 -20pt 정도의 하락 출발이 불가피해 보입니다 트럼프 발언으로 인한 글로벌 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 고개를 들고 있어 장 중 흐름도 약세가 불가피 해 보이며 1차 지지대인 2,050pt 지지를 주목해야 할 것 같습니다.