● [19/12/03/화요일] 또 다시 무역협상 노이즈

● [19/12/03/화요일] 재개된 무역분쟁...얼어붙는 시장  

♣️ 글로벌 동향                      

◈ 美 ; 부진한 경제지표+ 무역분쟁 재개+차익실현 욕구 확대에 "하락"                   
     ▷ Dow  -0.96%,   S&P500 -0.86%,  Nasdaq  -1.12%                      
◈ EU ; 남미로 확대된 트럼프발 무역분쟁 재개에 "하락"                      
     ▷ Stoxx 50  -2.80%                      

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                      
     ▷ 유로/달러→ 1.107(전일 1.101)... 전년말 1.146                      
     ▷ 달러/엔→ 108.980(전일 109.452)... 전년말 109.64                      
     ▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.602% p (전일 1.612%p)...전년말 2.496% pt                      
     ▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.820% p (전일 1.774%P)...전년말 2.686% pt                      
     ▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,469.20 (전일 $1,470.30)...전년말 $1,281.30                      
     ▷ WTI→ $55.96 (전일 $55.42)....전년말 $45.41                      

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                      
     ▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 748pt (탐욕), VIX 14.91(+18.15%)                      
     ▷ Dollar Index 97.805pt(-0.40%), 12월 1.25 - 1.50%로 금리인하 확률 7.40%                   

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                      
     ▷ 韓: GDP 성장률.                      
     ▷ 中: 없음.                      
     ▷ 유로존: PPI.                      
     ▷ 美: 레드북, ISM뉴욕지수.                  

♣️ 한국 동향                      
    ▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,091.92pt   +3.96pt(+0.19%)/  Kosdaq 634.50pt   +1.51pt(+0.24%)       
                 
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                      
    ▷ MSCI ETF 한국물  58.10pt  -0.37pt (-0.63%)                      
    ▷ 야간선물지수  276.40pt  -1.45pt (-0.52%)  환산지수 2,081.00pt                      

◈ 국내외 Check Point                         
   ▷ 中 "美 모든 관세 철폐해야 무역합의"...강공모드로 전환  
       → 美, 12/15 까지 中 변화없으면 관세부과
   ▷ 다시 관세카드 꺼내든 트럼프, 브라질/ 아르헨티나 겨냥...철강, 알루미늄 관세 부과 재개  
   ▷ 홍콩인권법에 대한 반격조치 발표 
       - 美 군함 홍콩에서 휴식 및 재출항 신청 중단 
       - 홍콩 시위에 영향 미친 비정부조직에 대한 제재 발표   
   ▷ 韓증시에서 외국인 18일 연속 순매도. 
       - 12월 아람코 상장에 따른 韓수급 악화 지속      
   ▷ 12일 쿼드러플 위칭데이         
                                        
♣️ 금일 투자 전략                      
   간밤에 이슈가 좀 많았습니다. "① 美-中 무역협상 신경전", "②트럼프, 남미 관세 재개","③中, 인권법 관련 美에 반격조치 발표","④美 11월 제조업PMI 48.1...4개월 연속 둔화" 등이 그 것입니다. 특히 "①"은 무역협상이 분쟁으로 점화될 조짐을 보이는 상태인데다 "②"와 "④"까지 가세하면서 "세계경기에 대한 우려"를 다시 키울 가능성이 높아졌고, "③"은 정치적 불안까지 야기할 수 있다는 점에서 부담스러운 상황입니다.

   물론 이런 이슈가 장기화 될지 극적 협상을 할지는 두고 봐야겠지만 지난 시황에서 말씀드린대로 박스권의 흐름을 피할 수 없어 보입니다.

   금일 시장입니다. 굳이 거론하지 않더라도 이슈자체가 무거워 하락출발이 예상됩니다. 특히 약간선물지수 낙폭도 그렇고 반도체 지수의 흐름도 부담스러웠기 때문입니다. 그나마 달러인덱스 하락이 지속되고 있어 상대적 낙폭이 크지 않을 것이라 자위해보지만 2,080pt 붕괴로 출발한 코스피는 1차 2,050pt 지지를 테스트할 가능성이 높아졌습니다. 

   아쉽지만 물량 일부를 줄이는 전략을 고려하시고 현금은 유지하면서 당분간 시장추이를 지켜봐야 할 것 같습니다.