●[2020/04/02/ 목요일] 4월 가중되는 불안

●[2020/04/02/ 목요일] 4월 가중되는 불안


♣️ 글로벌 동향                                                                                   

◈ 美 ; 4월부터 경제지표 절벽 불안에 "하락"                   
▷ Dow -4.44%, S&P500 -4.41%, Nasdaq -4.19%                   

◈ EU ; 코로나발 경제침체 공포에 "하락"                       
▷ Stoxx 50 -3.83%      
                                                                        
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)   
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.096 (전일 1.102)... 전년말 1.121                     
▷ 달러/엔→ 107.188 (전일 107.609)... 전년말 108.615                    
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.243% p (전일 0.242% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt       
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.608% p (전일 0.674% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt      
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,599.80 (전일 $1,590.95)...전년말 $1,519.95    
▷ WTI→ $21.17 (전일 $20.30)....전년말 $61.20                      

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                                                                
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 22pt (패닉), VIX 57.06 (-6.20%)                     
▷ Dollar Index 99.510pt(+0.42%), 4월 금리인하 확률 0.00%                     
                                                 
https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보      
                                          
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                    
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 1,685.46 pt  -69.18 pt(3.94%)/ Kosdaq 551.84pt  -17.23pt(3.03%)                                                                                            
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                               
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 46.32pt  +3.52pt (+6.57%)                      
▷ 야간선물지수 221.85pt  -3.30pt (-1.47%) 환산지수 1,660.76 pt            

◈ 국내외 Check Point                                    
▷ 美/ 유럽/ 日 코로나 팬데믹→ 日 확진자 3,202명 폭증  
    - 트럼프, 6/1까지 회복....그러나 2주는 매우 힘들 것  
▷ 中, 4/18 양회 열어 코로나 퇴치 공식화 예정  
    - 4/8부터 우한 봉쇄 해제...후베이는 25일부터
    - 美 정보당국, 백악관에 "中 코로나사태 축소했음을" 보고   
▷ 각 국 통화완화 및 대규모 재정정책 확대 지속  
    - 美 연기금, 증시부양 위해 490조원 투입 예정
▷ 글로벌기업 "$" 자금 확보 안간힘...정크본드 시장에서 자금조달  
    - 연준, 해외 중앙은행에 美국채 담보로 달러 대여   
    - 美 하이일드 스프레드 하락, 레버리지론 가격 상승...크레딧 위험 완화 중 
▷ 사우디 vs 러시아 석유전쟁에 美 셰일업계 휘청
    - 美 셰일 업체 화이팅석유, 파산 신청 
▷ 골드만 "美2Q 성장률 전망치 추가하향...34% 역성장"  
    - 실제 경제지표는 예상보다 덜 심각...우려감 과도하다는 의견도 부각
▷ 지난해 12월 결산 국내 상장기업  순이익 절반 수준 감소
    - 1Q 실적 더 가파른 절벽 예상 

♣️ 금일 투자 전략      
   코로나 초기"세계경제, 가파른 V자 회복 전망"은 "완만한 L 자 회복 전망"으로 바뀌고 있습니다. 특히, 4월 중순까지는 최악이 상황이 올 수 있다는 트럼프의 발언은 코로나 충격이 반영된 지표의 본격화를 의미하기도 해 투심은 여전히 패닉상태를 보이며 기업들 달러자금 조달로 한차례 더 시장충격과 달러강세가 진행될 전망입니다. 다만, 이 흐름은 직전 저점을 깨기 보다는 두번째 저점을 확인해 가는 과정으로 이어질 가능성이 있다는 판단입니다.

    금일 시장으로 가보죠. 반도체지수 및 NDF 시장 환율 그리고 달러인덱스, 야간선물지수 모두 실망스러운 모습입니다. 코스피는 1,660 pt 출발이 예상됩니다. 금일도 외국인은 주도적으로 물량을 내놓고 개인만 매수하는 모습이 예상되며 원화 역시 절하가 불가피해 보입니다.