◐[2021/ 4/ 21/ 수요일]갑작스럽게 다가온 불안감

◐[2021/ 4/ 21/ 수요일]갑작스럽게 다가온 불안감


♣️ 글로벌 동향(작성싯점 실시간 지수)         
◈ 美 ; 코로나 재확산+ 백신 수급악화에 "하락"         
▷ Dow -0.75%,    S&P500  -0.92%,    Nasdaq -0.92%         

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)         
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.203(전일 1.203)...전년말 1.221         
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.096(전일 108.177)... 전년말 103.252         
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.153% pt(전일 0.161% pt)... 전년말 0.123% pt         
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.564% pt(전일 1.604% Pt)... 전년말 0.917% pt         
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,778.65(전일 $1,770.75)... 전년말 $1,901.69         
▷ WTI→ $62.37 (전일 $63.50)... 전년말 $48.44         

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스         
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 48pt (중립), VIX 18.68(+8.04%)         
▷ Dollar Index 91.185pt(+0.15%), 4월 금리동결 확률 93.1%         

https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스         
(텔레그램 설치 필요)         

♣️ 한국 동향         
◈ 전일 지수 : Kospi 3,220.70pt  +21.86pt(0.68%)/ Kosdaq 1,031.88pt  +2.42pt (0.24%)         

◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수(작성싯점 실시간 지수)         
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 93.20pt -0.20pt (0.21%)         
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt +0.00pt (+0.00%)  환산지수 1,814.59 pt 임시중단         

◈ 국내외 이슈 체크        
    ○ 선진국 증시 "차익실현 욕구 증가"
    ○ 달러인덱스 6주만의 최저치에서 되돌림 반등
    ○ JP모건 "연준, 올 6월 Tapering 계획 시사"가능성 발표
       - 올해 연말 10년물 국채금리는 2% 돌파 예상
    ○ 가상화폐 거래소 무더기 폐쇄 현실로→ 9월말 대거 폐쇄 예고
       - 사고발생시 은행 책임에 실명계좌 개설 "바늘 구멍"
    ○ 4/27~ 28 FOMC.
    ○ 커지는 전세계 백신수급 악화 우려 속 J&J 후유증 부각
        - 유럽의약품청, 혈소판 감소 동반하는 특이 혈전의  매우 드문사례 가능성 발견
        - 인도 "이중변이 확산, 통제 불가"
    ○ 韓 정부, 반도체/ 미래차/ 반도체 투자 강화
       - 삼성전자 "역대급" 투자 발표 임박→ 최대 70조원 전망

◈ 투자 포인트
- 지난 밤 이슈 중 가장 눈에 띄는 내용은 시장에 영향을 미친 내용은 "코로나 변종 확산과 백신 수급 악화" 
- 그러나  "전망"이기는 하지만 낙관론을 주장하던 JP모건이 Tapering 에 대해 언급했다 부분도 주목 필요. 
- JP모건의 주장은 6월에 신호를 주고 12월에 발표해서 내년에 실행에 옮길 수 있다는 내용으로 이는 지난 14일 워싱턴경제클럽 주최 화상회의에서 파월의장이 제로금리는 유지하되 양적완화 축소는 빨라질 수 있다는 발언과 궤를 같이 하고 있다는 점에서 신경쓰이는 내용.

- 시장 낙관론이 더욱 강해진 가운데 인플레인션 충격을 경험 한 터라 향후 연준의 신호에 둔감해 질 수도 있어 주의가 필요. 
- 이번 상승동력이 연준에서 나왔기 때문에 통화정책의 변화는 시장의 동력 상실로 이어질 것이 자명하기 때문에 연준의 신호를 무시해서는 안될 것.