◐[2020/ 8/ 21/ 금요일] 코로나에 걸린 서울증시

◐[2020/ 8/ 21/ 금요일] 코로나에 걸린 서울증시


♣️ 글로벌 동향      
◈ 美 ; 주간신규실업수당 청구건수 악화 vs 파월의장 발언에 "상승"                    
▷ Dow   +0.17%,   S&P500    +0.32%,    Nasdaq   +1.40%  
◈ EU ; 코로나 확산에 경기회복 지연우려 부각되며 "Stoxx50 하락"     
▷ Stoxx 50   -1.32% 
                                                                                          
◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                     
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.186(전일 1.184)... 전년말 1.121                 
▷ 달러/엔→ 105.795(전일 106.146)... 전년말 108.615                     
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 0.145% p (전일 0.145% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt    
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 0.654% p (전일 0.685% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt    
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,958.00 (전일 $1,932.80)...전년말 $1,519.95   
▷ WTI→ $42.77 (전일 $43.00)....전년말 $61.20   

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스    
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 70pt (탐욕), VIX 22.72(+0.80%)   
▷ Dollar Index 92.737pt(-0.15%), 9월 금리동결 확률 86.0%      
                                                                   
https://t.me/happystock5 시장정보 및 참고뉴스                        
(텔레그램 앱 설치 필요)                    
                                                        
♣️ 한국 동향                                                                                        
◈ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,274.22pt   -86.32pt(3.66%)/ Kosdaq 791.14pt   -27.60(3.37%) 
  
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                                                 
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물   62.45pt  -1.89pt (2.94%)                                        
▷ 야간선물지수 243.75pt  +0.00pt (+0.00%) 환산지수 1,814.59 pt  임시중단
              
◈ 국내외 Check Point                                                     
▷ 美 추가 부양책 논의 교착 상태 지속...규모는 상당히 축소 
    - 집행규모 5천억 수준 그칠 듯
▷ Fed, YCC(수익율 곡선제어) 확실한 선긋기...신중론
▷ 中 상무부, 1단계 무역합의 이행현황 점검 회담 수일내 개최 예정
▷ 美 경제지표 회복세 및 글로벌 유동성 공급 속도 둔화
▷ 美 풋/콜 레이쇼, 닷컴버블 이후 최저...0.48pt
     - 0.50pt 이하 탐욕고조, 0.80pt 이상 패닉
▷ 전일 특이루머 : 北, 김여정이 위임통치 소식이 김정은 중병 루머로 확산
▷ 韓, 코로나 확산세 최악의 국면
▷ 美, 주간신규실업수당 악화 vs 파월의장 발언
     - 8/27~ 28 잭슨홀컨퍼런스 화상회의에서 연준 정책 검토에 대해 논의
     - 9/15~ 6 FOMC 장기적 전략변화 힌트 될 듯

◈ 결론
전일 서울시장은 7월 FOMC 의사록에 대한 실망과 北 관련 루머를 빌미로 외국인 선물 데이트레이딩에 영향을 받았지만 뉴욕시장은 주간신규실업수당 악화에 약세출발 후 파월의장 발언으로 Fed에 대한 기대감을 높이며 상승반전 마감하면서 대조를 이뤘습니다. 서울시장관련 김정은 소식이 루머로 확인되었고, 외국인도 선물 포지션도 환매수해 매도전 잔고로 되돌린 만큼 금일은 제한된 폭의 되돌림 반등이 예상됩니다. 금일 관전포인트는 코스피가 20일 이동평균선을 회복하느냐 일 것입니다. 

다시 글로벌 이슈로 가보죠. 전일 파월의장이 투심불안을 막기위해서였을까요? 잭슨홀컨퍼런스에서 연준 정책검토에 대해서 논의 해줄 것이라고 이례적 발언을 했고 증시가 그에 화답했습니다. 둔화되던 뉴욕증시를 좀 더 연장시키는 느낌이었습니다. 잭슨홀컨퍼런스가 9월 FOMC에 기대감을 높일지 주목해 봐야 할 것 같습니다. 다만 지속적으로 말씀드리고 있듯이 "버블상황"과 "글로벌 증시 상승의 원동력이던 이슈들의 지연 혹은 둔화"는 부담일 수 밖에 없습니다. 

그런만큼 조금씩이라도 대응해서 전일같은 급격한 변동성에 넋 놓고 당해서는 안되겠습니다.