●[2020/02/04/화요일] 전일 상승에 너무...

●[2020/02/04/화요일] 전일 상승에 너무... 

♣ 글로벌 동향                       

◈ 美 ; 지표호조 + WHO 중국을 제외하며 글로벌 확산세 제한적 소식에 "상승"                       
▷ Dow +0.51%, S&P500 +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.34%                       

◈ EU ; 中 대규모 유동성 공급 소식에 "상승"                       
▷ Stoxx 50 +0.56%                       

◈ 통화 및 채권, 금(작성싯점 실시간 가격)                       
▷ 유로/달러→ 1.106 (전일 1.109)... 전년말 1.121                       
▷ 달러/엔→ 108.68 (전일 108.35)... 전년말 108.615                       
▷ 미국 2 년물 금리→ 1.357% p (전일 1.319% p)... 전년말 1.571% pt                       
▷ 미국 10 년물 금리→ 1.522% p (전일 1.505% P)... 전년말 1.919% pt                       
▷ COMEX GOLD 1oz.→ $1,582.40 (전일 $1,588.70)...전년말 $1,519.95                       
▷ WTI→ $50.11 (전일 $51.62)....전년말 $61.20                       

◈ 심리지표와 달러 인덱스                       
▷ 공포와 탐욕 지수 46pt (중립), VIX 17.97 (-4.62%)                       
▷ Dollar Index 97.655pt(+0.45%), 3월 금리인하 확률 15.5%                       

◈ 주요국 경제 일정                       
▷ 韓: 인플레이션율.                      
▷ 中: 없음.                       
▷ 유로존: PPI.       
▷ 美: 레드북, ISM뉴욕지수, 공장주문, 공장재수주,IBD/TIPP 경제 낙관 지수.                       

https://t.me/happystock5 장 중 시장정보               

♣ 한국 동향                        
▷ 전일 지수 : Kospi 2,118.88 pt  -0.13 pt(-0.01%)/ Kosdaq 646.85pt  +4.37pt(+0.68%)                    
◈ 한국물 MSCI ETF, 야간선물지수                       
▷ MSCI ETF 한국물 58.58pt +0.93pt (+1.61%)                       
▷ 야간선물지수 286.80pt 1.60pt (+0.56%) 환산지수 2,130.77 pt                       

◈ 국내외 Check Point                       
▷ 新코로나 창궐, 전세계 경제 충격은 반영... 이제는 유동성에 이목 집중 될 듯    
    → "7∼10일 사이 확산 Peak"후 둔화될 경우 전세계 증시 반등 예상       
    → 인민은행 완화조치 본격화는 단기 유동성 호재 
▷ 태국 의료진 "두 종류 항바이러스제 혼합 투약한 우한폐렴 환자, 상태 급속 호전 
▷ 韓, 코스피 박스권 예상, 코스닥      
    → 환율 1,200원 마디가격대면서 상징적 저항대      
    → 12MF P/R 11배 = 2,180pt....2,082pt = P/E 10.50배   
    → 2월말 금통위, 금리인하 예정         
▷ 新코로나, 세계 경제피해 사스의 4배(191조).....블룸버그            
▷ 2/24 (월)~ 2/27(목) 2020 MWC            

♣ 금일 투자 전략  
 전일 코스피가 낙폭 축소에 성공은 했지만 아직은 안심하기는 일러 보입니다. 원화 약세가 진행 중이며 외국인 역시 의미있는 매수세가 이어지지 않고 있기 때문입니다. 中 역시 전일 개장으로, 증시와 위안화 추이는 더 지켜봐야 하는 상황. 이를 반영하듯 기술적 분석상으로도 코스피나 코스닥은 추세 저항대에 위치하며 마감한 상태이기 때문입니다. 

 그러나 P/E 10.5배의 지지, 태국 의료진의 新코로나 환자 급속호전 투약 방법 발표, 中 우한 지역에서 완쾌자 발표, WHO의 글로벌 확산세 제한적 등은 투심을 안정시키는 요인이죠. 결국 이를 정리하면 P/E 10.5배즉 2,082pt는 마지노선이 될 가능성이 높으며 시장은 마디지수인 2,100 pt 지지속 2,150pt 저항이 작용하는 박스권 흐름이 예상됩니다. 물론 中內 新코로나 확산세가 진정되면 2,150pt는 돌파 될 것으로 추정됩니다. 

 금일 시장으로 가보죠. 반도체 지수는 50일 이평선 저항이지만 상승했고, 야간선물지수도 상승 마감했습니다. 新코로나 관련소식도 양호하게 들리는 상황이고 역외환율도 하락했습니다. 여기다 中 당국이 新코로나로 피해 입은 기업을 지원하겠다고 발표한 소식도 긍정적이었죠 이를 토대로 코스피는 +10pt 이상 상승으로 출발 할 것으로 추정됩니다. 그러나 달러인덱스가 여전히 강세를 보익고 있어 외국인의 수급이 제한적일 수 있어 장 중 흐름 역시 시초가를 크게 벗어나지는 못할 것입니다.